Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Trump Must Win In The Suburbs To Be Re-Elected

These charts reflect the results of NBC News / Wall Street Journal Polls done in January, February, March, May, June, and July of this year. The margin of error for the polls is about 3.5 points.

The top chart shows Trump support in urban areas, and the second chart shows his support in rural areas. It's pretty obvious that Trump will lose big in the urban areas (about 27% of population) and win big in the rural areas (about 21% of population).

That makes the suburban vote very important. The suburbs have about 52% of the U.S. population, and in 2018 they comprised 51% of the votes cast (and the suburban vote is what gave Democrats their win in House elections). Trump must carry the suburbs by a fairly comfortable margin to offset the urban vote (which is larger than the rural vote).

Can he do that? Right now it's not looking real good for Trump. He is actually down about 3 points in the suburbs (47% to 50%). He needs to do at least 7 or 8 points better than that in the suburbs, or he will lose.

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