Tuesday, December 24, 2019

Could Donald Trump Actually Be Re-Elected In 2020?





It seems like, more often than not, I am hearing a lot of the cable news talking heads telling me that Donald Trump could be re-elected, might be re-elected, or will be re-elected in 2020. I don't know where they are getting that. The polls certainly don't show that.

The charts above are from the new Politico / Morning Consult Poll -- done on December 19th and 20th of a national sample of 1,387 registered voters, with a 3 point margin of error.

Note that by a margin of 20 points, voters think the United States is going in the wrong direction. By a margin of 14 points, voters have an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump. By a margin of 15 points, voters think Trump is NOT doing a good job. And by a margin of 9 points, voters would like to see the Senate remove Trump from office.

Those don't sound like numbers that would get Trump re-elected to me. But I actually don't mind the cable news scares. In 2016, too many Democratic voters stayed home because they thought Hillary Clinton was going to easily win. Hopefully, the disgust the voters have for Trump, and the fear that he might be re-elected, will get voters to the poll in huge numbers -- and if that happens, he will be defeated.

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