Democrats Have A Good Chance To Hold Congress

The following is part of an op-ed by Ryan Cooper at MSNBC.com: 

For most of 2022, Democrats have been sinking ever deeper into a pit of despair. President Joe Biden’s approval ratings (driven by the worst inflation in 40 years), were approaching those of the late Bush administration. The party’s agenda was apparently dead in the Senate, and Republican gerrymandering had given the GOP a substantial handicap in House elections. Election nerds took it for granted that Democrats would lose the House and probably the Senate too, along with control of vital swing-state governments, in November.

But in just a few weeks, things have taken a sharp turn for the better for the party. Democratic senators pushed through the Inflation Reduction Act — a large climate and health care bill that proves the party isn’t completely incapable of governing. Inflation appears to be moderating somewhat. And Republican extremism has produced weak conservative candidates in several states and, thanks to the right-wing majority Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Roe v. Wade, toxic opposition.

Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump appears to be in deep legal trouble. Last week, the FBI executed a search warrant at his Mar-a-Lago estate and reclaimed numerous boxes of documents. The entire conservative movement responded with purple-faced outrage, threatening retaliation against Attorney General Merrick Garland, the FBI and anyone else it could think of. One right-wing terroristmounted an attack on an FBI office, which ended in his death.

But then on Friday, the warrant was released, and everyone learned Trump is under investigation for allegedly violating the Espionage Act.

Democrats just might be able to save their majorities in Congress, if they hustle. . . .

Trump’s unprecedented legal problems are a nice cherry on top of the Democrats’ cake. Republicans definitely did not want to make the election center on the former president when there is inflation to complain about. Now their abject dedication to the most corrupt and lawless president in American history is laid bare. If conservatives have anything to do with it, Trump will be back in power come 2025, ready to carry out God only knows what. That’s a powerful argument in Democrats’ favor.

Now, Democrats would be fools to assume they will win by default. History and electoral common sense suggests that Republicans are still the favorites in the midterms. But the combination of solid achievement and loony extremist opponents is a powerful one. Biden’s poll numbers are improving, and the generic congressional ballot looks even better. If they put up a strong effort this fall, Democrats have a solid shot at remaining in control of Congress and the presidency.