Reverberations Are Still Strong From The Dobbs Decision

The following post is by Dan Rather and Elliot Kirschner:

A year. 

A year of harm, tragedy, and anger. 

A year of a grim reality overtaking large swaths of the country.

 

A year when millions of American women have lost the fundamental right to control their own reproduction and access critical health care.

 

A year of political opportunism.

And a year of political backlash.

A year of judicial overreach. 

And a year of diminished judicial credibility. 

The Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, announced a year ago today, convulsed the nation in ways that were entirely predictable, and yet also surprising. You can’t just revoke a right that has been taken for granted for about 50 years and not expect a response. And in the wake of Dobbs, public opinion seems to be shifting increasingly in favor of protecting this right, even as states are rushing to rescind it. 

The New York Times today published an article titled “How a Year Without Roe Shifted American Views on Abortion.” It noted:

For the first time, a majority of Americans say abortion is “morally acceptable.” A majority now believes abortion laws are too strict. They are significantly more likely to identify, in the language of polls, as “pro-choice” over “pro-life,” for the first time in two decades.

And more voters than ever say they will vote only for a candidate who shares their views on abortion, with a twist: While Republicans and those identifying as “pro-life” have historically been most likely to see abortion as a litmus test, now they are less motivated by it, while Democrats and those identifying as “pro-choice” are far more so.

It seems likely that Democrats’ overperformance in the 2022 midterm elections was in large part spurred by outcry over Dobbs. And pollsters, party leaders, and activists mobilizing on the ground all see evidence that this energy has not diminished as we head into the presidential campaign of 2024. The Times article is full of examples of Republican voters changing whom they support because of the abortion issue.

 

Yet Republican-controlled state legislatures can’t help themselves. Most are owned and operated by the extreme right wing of the party. And among these groups a total nationwide abortion ban, with no exceptions, is the only satisfactory outcome. So even as public opinion shifts to more nuanced and accepting positions, certain states are running an arms race over who can outlaw abortion most completely.

 

When abortion was legal, even with some restrictions, the worst and most heart-wrenching possibilities for tragic results were mostly theoretical. No longer. National and local news have been filled with devastating stories. The Times lists a few: “Women denied abortions despite carrying fetuses with no skull; a 10-year-old pregnant by rape forced to cross state lines for an abortion; women carrying nonviable pregnancies who could not have an abortion until they were on the brink of death.” These stories will likely continue, along with those of doctors leaving states with extreme laws, patients denied treatments for other medical conditions like cancer, and potential prosecutions for miscarriages. 

For decades, Republicans ran against abortion rights with a fevered campaign pitch to outlaw the practice completely. They appealed to their religious base using absolutist rhetoric. And they reaped the benefits at the ballot box. But because abortion was still legal, any harm of overturning Roe was mostly hypothetical. Politicians didn’t have to answer for the kinds of real-world stories listed above. Now all that has changed. 

Ultimately, the greatest harm caused by Dobbs will be endured by those who need abortions and can’t get them. It's a pain that will radiate outward, engulfing loved ones, families, and communities. But the significance of Dobbs also should be considered in our broader political, legal, and social environment. 

The anger that the ruling has engendered is intertwined with a narrative of anti-democratic dysfunction, unrestrained judicial activism, and brazen bad faith. It is the story of Republicans ramming justices onto the Supreme Court. It is the imposition of one group’s sense of religion-motivated morality onto the rest of the public. It is misogyny. It is a disregard for the most marginalized. It is a haughty imperviousness to the will of the people. 

In the eyes of millions of voters, the Dobbs decision is both a tragedy and an insult. It has unleashed great pain and suffering. And it also calls into question the health of American democracy. This is a country whose population supports legal access to abortion. And yet millions now find it illegal. This is not a stable status quo. And the reverberations may be felt at the ballot box for years or even decades to come, in ways that potentially reshape our country.