Wednesday, August 23, 2023

Witnessing A Right-Wing Version of The Bradley Effect?

I must admit that I don't understand the Republican infatuation with Donald Trump. He has brought the GOP nothing but grief. 

He lies at the drop of a hat, and even though a recent CBS News poll showed that Republicans trust him more than their families or their religious leaders, I find it hard to believe most Republicans don't know that.

He has been found to be a rapist by a New York jury, and seems to take pride in his obvious misogyny. 

Now he has been indicted for over 90 felony counts by four grand juries (two federal and two state grand juries), and faces several trials. Several polls have shown that a majority of voters believe Trump committed a criminal act.

Add to this the fact that Trump has been an electoral albatross around the neck of the Republican Party. Candidates he supported dropped like flies in the 2020 and 2022 elections - turning the expected "red wave" into a tiny pink trickle. And some 64% of voters say they would never vote for him in a general election.

Whether they like Trump or not, I can't believe they still support him -- or do they? Could they be telling pollsters and reporters that they support Trump because they don't want to admit in public that they are tired of his nonsense. Could they be embarrassed to admit to friends and neighbors that they realize his buffoonery?

Back in 1982, California voters told pollsters (and claimed in public) that they supported Tom Bradley (a Black candidate) for governor. But on Election Day, when they were alone in the voting booth, most voted for his white opponent. It has become known as the "Bradley Effect" -- telling pollsters and others that you will vote a certain way and then doing the opposite.

Could the same thing be happening in the Republican Party right now? Could we be witnessing a right-wing version of the Bradley Effect? Are Republicans telling friends and pollsters what they think they want to hear (instead of what they actually want to do)?

It's possible. It would explain why Republicans seem to support a very flawed person who will seriously damage their party if he gets the nomination. The only other explanation is that the GOP voters are either sadly deluded or incredibly stupid.

We won't know the answer until the primaries start early next year.

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