In recent presidential elections, the polls have been vilified - many of them justifiably. And some are even blaming the polls again this time - saying they were wrong. But they weren't. This time they were right!
This was a very close election in the popular vote. As of the latest count, Trump had 50.4% and Harris had 47.9%. That's about a 2.5 point gap. And that's exactly what the polls were telling us - that it would be very close.
While many polls had Harris with a slight lead, it was always within the poll's admitted margin of error - which means either of the candidates could have a small lead. That's how it turned out - a victory within the margin of error.
Polling is not an exact science. At best, they just give us an educated guess (within a small error) of what the public's thinking at a particular time. They told us this would be a close election and either candidate could win by a small margin. That is what happened, especially in the critical swing states.
Some look to the electoral college margin (312 to 226), and say it wasn't a close election. But polling can't predict what the electoral college will turn out to be - only what the popular vote might be.
For the most part, I think the polls did a credible job this time.
some simple election analysis...
ReplyDelete30% of repugs will always be hard-core, chump cultists. The other 70% of chumpazoids either didn't want another darky prez or a woman to be prez or they actually believe immigrants are eating pets. It's astounding that this country is still so full of racists and bigots and fools that they would elect a convicted felon.
This country survived 8 years of ronnie raygun and 8 years of the shrub. Whether it survives in 4 years remains to be seen. However, I do see a time (probably late in chump's term) that he is declared disabled, Dunce becomes prez via the 25th and he pardons chump of all criminal actions.