Nuclear Weapons Haven't Gone Away - And They're More Dangerous Than Ever

 

The following is part of an excellent article in The Washington Post:

By Jon B. Wolfsthal

, 

Hans Kristensen

 and 

Matt Korda

Jon B. Wolfsthal is the director of global risk at the Federation of American Scientists. Hans Kristensen and Matt Korda are the director and associate director of the FAS Nuclear Information Project.

Over the past 30 years, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the prospect of nuclear war has faded from the American consciousness. With the end of the Cold War, films depicting the last days of humanity, such as 1959’s “On the Beach,” or the 1983 TV drama “The Day After,” largely disappeared from the Hollywood playbook. Schoolchildren no longer hid under their desks during practice drills to survive nuclear war.

But the weapons never went away. While thousands were scrapped and nuclear inventories were significantly reduced, many other weapons were put into storage and still thousands more remain deployed, ready for use.

Now, they and the dangers they pose are making a comeback.

The last nuclear age was defined by two superpowers — the United States and the Soviet Union — poised to destroy one another in less than an hour. They both kept nuclear weapons locked and loaded to deter the other by threatening retaliation and certain destruction.

Today’s global nuclear landscape is far more complicated and, in many ways, more precarious. More countries and more advanced technologies are involved. Weapons can fly farther, faster, from more places. Information, accurate or false, can move even more quickly. Autocrats and extremists hold positions of power in nuclear-armed countries. Nuclear threats, once taboo, are now increasingly common. And the last nuclear arms control treaty still in force between Russia and the United States expires in February.

Many of the most dangerous ideas from the Cold War are being resurrected: lower-yield weapons to fight “limited” nuclear wars; blockbuster missiles that could destroy multiple targets at once; the redeploying of a whole class of missiles once banned and destroyed by treaty. On top of this, countries are testing new ways to deliver these weapons, including nuclear-powered cruise missiles that can fly for days before hitting their targets; underwater unmanned nuclear torpedoes; fast-flying, maneuverable glide vehicles that can evade defenses; and nuclear weapons in space that can attack satellites or targets on Earth without warning. . . .

Addressing the dangers of this new nuclear reality will take more than relearning old lessons, because the ways in which these weapons are being deployed, could be delivered and the technologies they rely on are all evolving day by day. Instead of capping or limiting national missile defenses, as was done from 1972 to 2002, the U.S., Russia and China are developing more capable defenses — including the highly ambitious “golden dome” missile defense system President Donald Trump announced recently. At the same time, multiple nuclear-armed countries are developing highly maneuverable hypersonic weapons that can carry nuclear payloads and take unpredictable pathways to their targets to evade missile protection systems.

Russia and China are also both building new long-range missiles with multiple warheads that could hit multiple targets — reversing a major effort to limit such weapons during the Cold War. Both countries are also reportedly developing options to put nuclear weapons in space to attack satellites and/or targets on the ground. And the U.S. is considering building even more ways of delivering nuclear weapons, including with sea-launched cruise missiles capable of reaching Russia, China and beyond.

It is as if the lessons of the Cold War — that there is never a finish line to the arms race and that more effective nuclear weapons do not lead to stability and security — have been forgotten by the current generation of defense planners.

Finally, there is growing concern that Russia, China, the U.S. and even North Korea plan to use artificial intelligence to help manage their nuclear arsenals. Statements by the U.S. and China to keep a “human in the loop” are designed to reassure, but AI is already being used in conventional military planning and nuclear-related early warning and detection. No one knows how this new technology will ultimately affect nuclear strategy. . . .

Without renewed public pressure or political will, the world is condemned to live under the shadow of nuclear annihilation. We deserve better.