Current Prediction Is Democrats Gain 35 House Seats

Here are the results of the U.S. House midterm elections since 1974:

1974 (Ford) -- Democrats gained 49 seats.

1978 (Carter) -- Republicans gained 15 seats.

1982 (Reagan) -- Democrats gained 26 seats.

1986 (Reagan) -- Democrats gained 5 seats.

1990 (Bush I) -- Democrats gained 7 seats.

1994 (Clinton) -- Republicans gained 54 seats.

1998 (Clinton) -- Democrats gained 5 seats.

2002 (Bush II) -- Republicans gained 8 seats.

2006 (Bush II) -- Democrats gained 31 seats.

2010 (Obama) -- Republicans gained 64 seats.

2014 (Obama) -- Republicans gained 13 seats.

Who's going to be the big winner in 2018? It looks right now that it will be the Democrats going this year. Prognosticator Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com says there's a 75.5% chance that Democrats will take control of the House (see chart below). They need about 25 seats to do that, and Silver is currently predicting a gain of 35 seats by Democrats.

Tom DeLay Talking Rationally ?

This is a rather shocking development -- Tom DeLay, former House Majority Leader for the GOP, actually making some sense. I had always thought the man was brain-dead, but maybe I was wrong. Maybe his miniscule brain was just covered with thick cobwebs from lack of use, and maybe all that dancing on TV has shaken some of those cobwebs loose.

Anyway, I can't find a lot to argue with about the things he has to say about the Republican Party in his latest interview with PoliticsDaily.com. He basically blasted the Republicans, and said they had no chance of regaining power in the mid-term elections "barring a miracle".

He also said they were a leaderless party. In fact, DeLay couldn't name a single viable leader for the Republican Party. Other than his prediction of Republicans gaining 20 seats in next year's election (which I think is a little generous), I think his other statements are pretty much on target.

Here's what he said in his own words:

"Republicans will pick up some seats in the House, maybe 20, but not enough to take back control."

"The Republican Party doesn't have the organization or leadership to take advantage of this dire political situation that Obama is in now. We have these grassroots sprouting up, but not the party organization to use them."

"Republicans are leaderless, so we're just fighting each other instead of Obama's radical policies. There's no political leader of the party taking control. So, Republicans are just attacking each other for being too far right or too far left. Even Rush and Hannity are doing it."

"It's all the same old guys who were in leadership with me, and those old guys aren't the leaders the party needs."