Tide Is Turning

Political Cartoon is by Jack Ohman in The Oregonian.

Iowa GOP Race Still A Fluid Mess

The situation in Iowa remains very fluid. At least 9% of all men and 16% of all women Republican caucus voters still haven't made up their minds who to support on January 3rd, and a large number of those who have indicated a preference say they could still change their minds.

Another new poll has been released. The American Research Group Poll questioned 600 Republican caucus-goers between December 19th and 22nd (470 Republicans and 130 Independents). The margin of error is 4 points. Here is how the race stacks up in that poll:

Ron Paul...............21%
Mitt Romney...............20%
Newt Gingrich...............19%
Rick Perry...............9%
Michele Bachmann...............8%
Jon Huntsman...............6%
Rick Santorum...............4%
Buddy Roemer...............1%
Undecided...............12%

It's looking more and more like there will not be a real winner in Iowa. Instead, there will be several candidates emerge from Iowa with delegates (even Perry and Bachmann could get some delegates if things go right for them on caucus night). But things get really interesting when the poll is broken down by different groups. Here are the poll leaders by group:

MEN
Paul...............29%
Gingrich...............21%
Romney...............18%

WOMEN
Romney...............23%
Gingrich...............17%
Paul...............12%
Perry...............11%

INDEPENDENTS
Paul...............33%
Romney...............17%
Gingrich...............17%

REPUBLICANS
Romney...............21%
Gingrich...............20%
Paul...............17%
Bachmann...............10%

TEABAGGERS
Gingrich...............29%
Paul...............17%
Romney...............16%
Bachmann...............11%
Perry...............11%

NON-TEABAGGERS
Paul...............22%
Romney...............22%
Gingrich...............15%

Since the different groups are supporting candidates in differing numbers, it's all going to come down to who shows up for the caucuses. Are there going to be an abnormally large portion of Independents (which would be good for Paul)? Are the teabaggers going to show up in larger numbers than establishment Republicans (which would favor Gingrich)? Are women going to be as large a group as men (which would help Romney)?

January 3rd is shaping up to be a very interesting night for us political junkies. As Terrell Owens once said -- get your popcorn ready.

Higgs Boson

Political Cartoon is by Bob Englehart in The Hartford Courant.

2011's Ten Dumbest Economic Ideas

Since the advent of Republican "trickle-down" economics, this country has been on a downhill slide economically -- and it resulted in our current recession and massive job loss. Unfortunately, these ideas have also infected other developed nations, most notably in Europe, and they have followed us down that economic hill.

One would think with the serious consequences of the recession, these people would have learned their lesson and returned to a more sensible economic policy. Sadly, that has not happened. They keep proposing the same old failed policies, and assuring us that someday they will work. All we have to do is just look at the really dumb economic ideas currently being proposed and pursued.

Jeff Madrick, over at the blog New Deal 2.0, has compiled a list of what he considers the ten worst economic ideas proposed and pursued in 2011. It's hard to argue with his list, because these are some incredibly stupid ideas. Unfortunately, too many people are still buying into them. Here is his list:

Scary

Political Cartoon is by Mike Keefe at caglecartoons.com.

Advice From The Buddha

As regular readers of this blog will know, I am an atheist. But that does not mean I don't have the ability to recognize good advice when I see it -- even if it comes from a religious icon. The following advice, found at the blog The Immoral Minority, is said to have come from the Buddha. We would all be better off to follow it. (NOTE -- the above picture of the Buddha was painted by mexican artist Octavio Ocampo.)

Do not believe anything on mere hearsay. 

Do not believe in traditions merely because they are old and have been handed down for many generations and in many places. 

Do not believe anything on account of rumors or because people talk a a great deal about it. 

Do not believe anything because you are shown the written testimony of some ancient sage. 

Do not believe in what you have fancied, thinking that, because it is extraordinary, it must have been inspired by a god or other wonderful being. 

Do not believe anything merely because presumption is in its favor, or because the custom of many years inclines you to take it as true. 

Do not believe anything merely on the authority of your teachers and priests. But, whatever, after thorough investigation and reflection, you find to agree with reason and experience, as conducive to the good and benefit of one and all and of the world at large, accept only that as true, and shape your life in accordance with it. 

Do not accept any doctrine from reverence, but first try it as gold is tried by fire.

GOP Would Destroy The Country To Beat Obama

There used to be a time when, no matter who won an election, the two political parties would debate and then work out compromises that helped the country to prosper. Thanks to the ideological obstructionism (and racism) of far too many Republicans, it's not that way any more. The Republicans have made unseating the president their prime consideration -- even if they have to make the recession worse, keep millions of people without jobs, and destroy the country. They truly do hate the president more than they love their country.

House GOP Folds On Payroll Tax Cut

In a supreme example of putting their wacky ideology and their love for the rich over what is good for most Americans, the House GOP voted against a two-month extension of the payroll tax cut a few days ago. That vote also insured Medicare payments to doctors would be cut and unemployment benefits stopped for millions. They thought they could pressure Democrats into folding again and agreeing to more giveaways for the rich to get the president's payroll tax cut.

But their holding a tax cut for 160 million working Americans hostage didn't work out this time. The president and the Majority Leader of the Senate, Harry Reid, once again discovered their backbones -- and decided to put them to good use. The president took to the "bully pulpit" and made sure all Americans knew it was the Republicans who had voted to raise their payroll taxes, cut off unemployment insurance and cut Medicare payments to doctors. Reid just refused to negotiate further.

This put the House Republicans in a very bad situation, and even angered many in their own party. The Wall Street Journal, a newspaper usually very kind to Republican views, attacked them for killing the payroll tax cut. At least five Republican senators, including John McCain, also publicly excoriated the House GOP, along with many Republican-friendly political pundits (like Karl Rove). It was obvious to everyone that the House GOP had painted the whole Republican Party into a corner -- and that action could severely hurt them in the next election.

Then yesterday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, one of the most right-wing politicians in Congress, took to the airwaves to publicly spank the House GOP. That was the final straw. The House GOP caved in. They folded like a cheap suit. Speaker John Boehner (pictured above) announced the House GOP would approve the payroll tax cut extension today (by unanimous consent over the telephone).

But this is only a two-month extension. When Congress re-convenes in January, the Republicans and Democrats will resume negotiations to extend the payroll tax cut (and unemployment and Medicare doctor payments) for the rest of the year. And you can bet the Republicans will once again try to pack the bill full of giveaways to their rich corporate buddies.

Hopefully, the Democrats have learned from this time how to play political hardball. This is an issue where they have the public on their side, and they need to refuse to give in to Republican demands. If they stay unified and stand firm, they can make the House GOP back down again -- and that would even help them in the next election, because voters like politicians willing to fight for them and not back down. Democrats have looked too weak in the last few years, and its time for them to change that image -- and this is the perfect issue to do it with.

Santa Boehner

Political Cartoon is by David Horsey in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer.

2011 GDP Growth Is Very Weak

The chart above shows the growth of United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2010 and the first three quarters of 2011 -- and it's not good news for the U.S. economy. It shows that the growth in GDP (which is a good indicator of how strong or weak the economy is) this year has been very weak. The average annual growth for the first three quarters of 2011 was 1.167%.

Normal healthy growth for an economy is usually defined as be more than 3%. An economy that grows less than 2% is an economy in trouble, and even could easily slip back into negative growth. With an anemic growth average of 1.167% for the first three quarters, it is very doubtful that the economy can do well enough in the fourth quarter to get the annual GDP for 2011 up to the 2% mark -- even with an excellent holiday buying season (which is still questionable).

These numbers make it pretty clear why jobs are not being created in anywhere near sufficient numbers. People are not buying, and therefore the demand for goods and services is very low. The solution to this would be to pump more money into the economy by providing more money for average Americans (who will have to spend it since they are struggling to make ends meet). This would sort of "prime the pump" of the economy and create more demand. That would be good for everyone, since it would both increase profits and create jobs (thus increasing demand even more).

But that doesn't fit the Republican ideology -- which demands that money be taken from ordinary Americans (through government cuts in nearly everything) and be given to the rich (through massive new tax cuts and subsidies). They are determined to damage the economy even more, either through ignorance of real economic principles or a desire to defeat President Obama (who they hate) -- or maybe both.

As the chart above shows, the American economy is now in a very fragile state. If we want to improve it anytime soon, we must do what the American people did the last time Republican policies destroyed the economy (the Great Depression) -- vote the Republicans out of power. Considering their willingness to put ideology above reality, it is the only way.

Class War

Political Cartoon is by Clay Bennett in the Chattanooga Times Free Press.

Texas Leads Nation In Population Growth

Texas is not the most populous state in the nation -- California has that honor(?). But if recent trends continue, it could be someday. According to United States Census population growth estimates, Texas was the state with the largest population growth since the 2010 census. The Texas population increased by about 529,000, a growth of 2.1% (1.7% when adjusted to a yearly rate).

The largest segment of the growth was due to births. There were 493,650 births. When the 205,171 deaths are subtracted, that leaves a net gain of 288,479 in population. The rest of the population growth was made up of people moving into the state -- 145,315 from other states and 93,641 from other countries.

Here are the top ten states in population growth since the 2010 census:
1. Texas..........529,000
2. California..........438,000
3. Florida..........256,000
4. Georgia..........128,000
5. North Carolina..........121,000
6. Washington..........105,000
7. Virginia..........96,000
8. Arizona..........90,000
9. Colorado..........88,000
10. New York..........87,000

Only three states have lost population since the last census. They are Michigan (-7,448), Rhode Island (-1,265), and Maine (-173).

A Cartoonist's Christmas

Political Cartoon is by Lee Judge in The Kansas City Star.

Playing The Victim Card

The right-wing fundamentalists in the United States like to think of themselves as victims. They believe the christian religion is under attack. The chart above, from the excellent blog Thurman's Notebook, shows that is just silly. Christianity is by far the most dominant religion in the country. What they perceive as an attack is simply an effort to try and keep them from forcing their religion on others who want no part of it.