Friday, April 04, 2025
Most People Think Trump Will Try For A Third Term (But Shouldn't Be Allowed To)
The chart above is from the YouGov Poll -- done between March 30th and April 1st of a nationwide sample of 1,626 adults, with a 3.3 point margin of error.
About 219,000 Workers Filed For Unemployment Last Week
The Labor Department released its weekly unemployment report on Thursday. It showed about 219,000 workers filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending on March 29th. Here is the official Labor Department statement:
In the week ending March 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 224,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,000, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 224,000 to 224,250.
Thursday, April 03, 2025
Trump And Musk Are Down 10 Points On Favorability
The charts above reflect the results of the Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between March 30th and April 1st of a nationwide sample of 1,465 registered voters, with a 3.1 point margin of error.
Trump's Rants About Tariffs Go Beyond Nonsense
One safe prediction, however, is that over the next few days we’ll see many news analyses purporting to explain the thinking behind this radical change in U.S. policy.
Such analyses will be a waste of time, because there’s nothing to explain. I’m not saying that the Trump team’s thinking is unsound. I don’t see any thinking at all.
I don’t know how many people realize that the administration’s case for tariffs is completely incoherent, that it has not one but two major internal contradictions.
Here’s the story: Trumpers are claiming that tariffs
1. Won’t increase prices, because foreign producers will absorb the cost
2. Will cause a large shift in U.S. demand away from imports to domestic production
3. Will raise huge amounts of revenue
If you think about it for a minute, you realize that (1) is inconsistent with (2): If prices of imports don’t rise, why would consumers switch to domestically produced goods? At the same time, (2) is inconsistent with (3): If imports drop a lot, tariffs won’t raise a lot of money, because there won’t be much to tax.
So the public story about tariffs doesn’t make any sense. And Trump’s rants about tariffs go beyond nonsense.
The Writing Is On The Wall - Can Republicans Read It?
Elon Musk thought he was a political genius, and decided to buy the GOP a state Supreme Court judge. He spent millions of dollars on the campaign - and even gave away a couple of million dollar checks to try and raise the enthusiasm among voters. It was all for naught.
On Tuesday, voters elected Democrat Susan Crawford to the Wisconsin Supreme Court. And it wasn't even close. Crawford won by a 10-point margin. If Musk isn't embarrassed, he should be. He took what would probably have been a close race and turned it into a blowout for the candidate he didn't support.
I have been wondering when the public would create a backlash against the actions of Musk and Trump. It began on Tuesday.
The voters were clear. Musk was not about to buy the election. He could have spent millions more, and it wouldn't have made any difference. The voters were making a statement.
They don't like Musk - and they don't like what he's doing to programs that are important to them (Social Security, Veterans affairs, Medicare/Medicaid, Education, etc.). The voters were unhappy, and you can't buy the vote of an unhappy voter.
But it wasn't just Wisconsin. Voters in Florida gave the GOP something to think about, too. There were elections in two Florida House districts. Bot districts were bright red - having given Trump and the GOP House candidates over 30 point margins last November. Those vote margins were cut in half on Tuesday.
Republicans probably don't have to worry about these two districts in November of 2026. But there are dozens of GOP seats with muck smaller winning margins - and the representative holding those seats should start to worry. The voters aren't happy with Trump's tariffs, Musk's chaotic destruction of agencies, and the GOP congress that allows that without any resistance.
The writing is on the wall. Can Republicans read it? Or are they too busy kissing Trump's but to notice?
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