According to today's Fort Worth Star-Telegram, a new poll was conducted by the Texas Trial Lawyers Association and released by Opinion Analysts Inc. out of Austin. This poll is radically different from any of the other polls that have been released. Unless there has been massive movement in the governor's race, I don't see how this poll could be accurate. The poll shows Grandma in second with 20% [other polls show her between 11% and 15%]. It also has Bell and Kinky losing about 10% each, which I simply do not believe. For what it's worth, here are the numbers:
Perry...............33%
Grandma...............20%
Kinky...............14%
Bell...............13.5%
Werner...............Not Included
Perry was quick to dismiss the results, as his campaign manager said, "This is a setup deal by the trial lawyers." Kinky's campaign manager also dismissed the poll by saying, "If likely voters, and by that I mean the 29% that turned out in 2002, decide this race, then Kinky loses. Kinky's whole strategy is to go after those who are disillusioned or fed up with politics. So if we see turnout reach 35% or 40%, those people are not going to be coming out to re-elect Perry." Bell's spokeswoman seemed to accept the numbers, and said her candidate would show an increase when they start their own TV ads.
UPDATE - Maybe these numbers aren't as wrong as I thought. The Dallas Morning News has released a poll of their own this morning, and the numbers are similar. This poll was conducted by Blum & Weprin Inc. of New York City. Here is how they see the race:
Perry...............38%
Grandma...............18%
Bell...............15%
Kinky...............14%
Werner...............Not Included
If these polls are correct, it looks like Perry is cruising toward another win. Unless that is, Kinky's non-traditional voters show up at the polls. Will they show up? I wish I knew.
If the number for Kinky is right, then the number for Bell must be right also.
ReplyDeleteIt is believable. Perry will certainly cruise to another term. He simply has no reasonable competition. Bell is unknown and is hurt significantly by Kinky and Grandma. Kinky is not and never will be a viable candidate. Strayhorn, can't please either side, and she isn't running a very successful centrist campaign. Way to go Gov. Perry!
ReplyDeleteThe internal numbers show that the main difference between Kinky's low level of support and Bell's is this: the voters know Kinky and they don't like him very much; the voters don't know Bell, but those few that do know him, generally like him fairly well. Bell's problem is fixable (but he's running out of time) whereas Kinky's done.
ReplyDeleteUnless Bell (or Strayhorn?) pulls it together at the last minute, we're in for more Perry.
You know the trial lawyer poll is wrong - done by Strayhorn supporters. Bell has a minimum base of 25-30% simply with the D after his name.
ReplyDeleteI would like to see some good polling now on this race as the DMN doesn't match the earlier recent polls and their being Perry supporters might reflect a similar bias as the Strayhorn supporter poll. That Perry number is way too high. It is hard to see Bell dropping to forth with nothing going on.