Zogby Thinks Sekula-Gibbs Could Win District 22

Ever since Tom DeLay made a monumental blunder by winning the Republican primary and then dropping out of the race, many political pundits have been saying that District 22 would be won by the Democrat, Nick Lampson, this year. One reason they have been saying this is because DeLay's name could not be removed from the ballot, and anyone voting for the Republican candidate, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, would have to write her name in on the ballot. Traditionally, write-in candidates do not do well in Texas.

Now there is someone who says the race is evenly divided at this point, and the Republican could win. Pollster John Zogby has just released a new poll taken in District 22 between October 23 and October 25. According to the poll, Lampson had 36%, the write-in had 35%, the Libertarian had 4%, and 25% were still undecided. The poll was conducted for the Houston Chronicle and KHOU-TV. The poll has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

Zogby says, "Both candidates seem to be swimming upstream here. What's clear on one hand, is Nick Lampson seems to have had the opportunity and has not closed the deal just yet. On the same token, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs has a great opportunity in a Republican district. Punditry was coloring the district blue. It's still a Republican district. Even harder than selling a write-in, is selling a Democrat in this district."

I'm not sure what to think about this. I find it awfully hard to believe a write-in candidate could win, especially with the anti-Republican wave that seems to be sweeping across the country. But that wave is not as strong in Texas as it is in other states, and odd things do happen in politics. Democrats should not take this one for granted.