Regime Change Coming In Pakistan

Musharraf is not doing too well right now as the military ruler of Pakistan. He turned much of the country against him when he tried to fire Chief Justice Chaudhry of the Pakistani Supreme Court. So many people rose up against the move, that he had to back down.

That seems to have given impetus to his opponents, and now many people are demanding an end to military rule. Musharraf has become so unpopular that he has recently had his people involved in "power sharing" talks with exiled former leader Benazir Bhutto. Bhutto is now saying that she is going to return regardless of how the talks turn out. She will announce her return date next friday.

Just to complicate things, exiled former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is also announcing his return to Pakistan. He is to return on Monday, and travel with supporters from Islamabad to Lahore, greeting supporters along the way. He said, "I know that this is a risky course for me and there can be dangers in it. But I am doing this for Pakistan. Nothing else can be more pleasing for me than freeing (Pakistan) from the clutches of military dictatorship. I will be happy that for a small price -- my going to jail -- Pakistan will get freedom."

It looks like Musharraf is afraid of Sharif, because he had ordered the arrest of 2,000 Sharif supporters in the last couple of days. Many believe he will try to arrest Sharif when he returns. The army is only allowing those with outbound flights to go into the vicinity of the airport.

Arresting either Sharif or Bhutto could turn out to be a huge mistake for Musharraf. Both have a lot more supporters than Chief Justice Chaundhry did when Musharraf tried to take him on. Musharraf's position is becoming more untenable with each passing day. He's like a nervous man on a tightrope, with Bhutto and Sharif on either end of the rope hacking away with machetes.

I really don't expect Musharraf to last much longer. I just hope Bush doesn't try to interfere in Pakistan's internal affairs. The majority of Pakistanis already hate us, and if we try to intervene, it could really become a mess. It could even make our position in Afghanistan untenable.

What will these changes in Pakistan mean for us? That's anybody's guess. But it will be better for us to refuse to take sides in the coming power struggle.