A month ago, Barack Obama was behind in Pennsylvania by double-digits, and it looked like Clinton might get a huge win there. In fact, as recently as April 2 Obama was still behind by about 9 points. But a new poll shows him now closing the gap.
A new Quinnipiac University poll released yesterday shows Clinton now only has a 6 point lead in the state (50% to 44%). Last weeks poll had Clinton leading by 50% to 41%. While Clinton's numbers have remained the same, it's looking like the late deciders are breaking for Obama.
Obama supporters would consider a small percentage win by Clinton to be a victory, because that would give them a virtual tie in delegates allocated. Clinton can't afford that -- she has to start making up some ground in the overall delegate count, and she is counting on Pennsylvania to help her do that.
Obama is outspending Clinton in Pennsylvania, and I'm sure that has helped him to close the gap some. But Clinton has just had a bad week with the "Tusla" and "hospital" mis-statements staying in the headlines for the last few days. That is probably also helping Obama.
A couple of weeks ago, Governor Rendell (a Clinton supporter) was confidently telling the media that Clinton would win in Pennsylvania by double-digits. Now he is talking about how hard it is to win Pennsylvania by more than a single digit. That makes me think the Clinton pollsters are seeing the same gains by Obama.
There's still a couple of weeks to go before the primary voting, but it looks like Pennsylvania might be a lot closer than expected.
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