Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Young Voters Are Solidly Supporting President Biden
The chart above is from the CBS News / YouGov Poll -- done between June 17th and 21st of a nationwide sample of 743 people age 18 to 29, with a 5.2 point margin of error.
The Debate Poses More Dangers For Trump Than Biden
I think the debate poses more dangers for Trump than for President Biden. Trump, and his GOP cronies have lowered the bar for Biden by framing him as a doddering old man. All Biden has to do is present himself as knowledgeable and competent and he's a winner.
But there are several ways in which Trump could blow the debate.
CLAIMING VICTIMHOOD
Trump loves to claim he is a victim - both of the 2020 election and his recent conviction in a New York trial. That may sell well with his die-hard supporters, but not most voters. Most people know he lost the 2020 election fair and square and most believe he was guilty of the 34 felonies he was convicted of in New York. They won't buy his victimhood, and will just consider it whining - and they don't want a whiner but a leader!
UNPOPULAR POLICIES
Trump usually avoids discussing policies, but he has enumerated a few - more tax cuts for the rich and corporations, leaving abortion to the states, abolishing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), and initiating new tariffs (which Americans would wind up paying). These are not popular stances with the public, and talking about them in the debate will not win any new voters.
BULLYING
This is a favorite tactic of Trump, and he has used it in past debates - calling his opponents names and trying to intimidate them. CNN has tried to eliminate that by having no audience (so Trump can't count of his supporters to hep intimidate) and turning off his microphone when it isn't his turn to talk. But he still might try to interrupt and/or shout down his opponent. It won't help him because most Americans don't like bullies.
WORD SALAD
In his rallies, Trump has had a habit of going off topic and talking about strange things that don't make much sense when he doesn't have a teleprompter. And example is his weird discussion of electric boats sinking and sharks. If he does this during the debate, it will just have many voters wondering if he is mentally competent.
Biden will come out of the debate sounding like a competent person. Trump needs to do the same. But I doubt Trump is capable of that. I believe he will do one (or more) of the things above and blow it!
Comparing The Tax Policies Of Trump And Biden
Robert Reich writes about the tax policies of Donald Trump and Joe Biden:
I know that tax policy isn’t the most exciting thing I could be talking about with you today. The mainstream media are focusing on immigration and access to abortions. But tax policy is among the most important and revealing differences between another term of Trump or another of Biden.
Start with Trump.
During his wild term in the White House, Trump had one major legislative accomplishment, if you want to call it an accomplishment: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act he signed into law in December 2017.
It has an enormous cost: Although Republican leaders claimed it would generate growth and lead to “$1 trillion in additional revenue,” the Congressional Budget Office estimated that it would cost $1.9 trillion before the tax cuts expired in 2025. The CBO’s estimate has proven to be right on the mark. The Trump tax cut has exploded the national debt.
With no benefits: The Trump tax cut did not generate the wave of new investment Trump promised.
It just widened inequality: The Trump tax cut has given an undeserved windfall to its major beneficiaries: the very rich and big corporations.
Corporations didn’t use it to reward workers or increase productivity. Instead, corporations merely increased their stock buybacks, which will exceed $1 trillion by 2025.
The rise in buybacks is another way Trump’s 2017 corporate rate cut translated into higher wealth for the already wealthy rather than a boost in worker pay.
In stock buybacks, corporations distribute profits to shareholders by offering to buy back shares, which automatically raises the stock’s price. This increases wealth for all stockholders, especially those with the most shares, who are wealthier to begin with.
A recent study by economists from the Joint Committee on Taxation and the Federal Reserve Board found that workers below the 90th percentile of their firm’s income scale (a group whose incomes were below roughly $114,000 in 2016) saw no change in earnings from the Trump tax cut. Earnings rose only for those at the top, with the largest gains for those at the very top.
If reelected, what will Trump do? The 2017 Trump tax cut ends in 2025. This gives policymakers an opportunity to move toward a tax system that raises revenue through progressive tax policies — ending the Trump tax cut and increasing the corporate tax rate.
But Trump is telling his largest funders that if he is reelected, he’ll extend his tax cut. That was his message at his April fundraiser that supposedly made $50 million for his campaign.
The cost of extending the Trump tax cut will be mammoth: The Congressional Budget Office has a new estimate of the cost of keeping Trump’s tax cut in place over the next decade: $4.6 trillion, which is more than double the original cost. It would cause the federal deficit and debt to soar.
It would be trickle-down economics on steroids.
GOP lawmakers and some of Trump’s economic advisers are considering even more corporate tax breaks, arguing that they would improve the U.S.’s global competitiveness.
Why do you suppose so many CEOs, big corporations, and the wealthy are coming around to Trump?
Why is the Business Roundtable investing big bucks in Trump? Because he’ll cut their taxes (and roll back regulations), making them even richer. But the rest of us will pay — with more of our tax dollars devoted to paying interest on the larger debt, and fewer devoted to keeping Social Security and Medicare solvent or to any other public need.
And now, Joe Biden’s tax plan. It’s the exact opposite of Trump’s.
Biden says he will not extend the Trump tax cuts.
Biden has proposed to increase taxes on incomes in excess of $400,000 a year, while cutting taxes for lower-income Americans.
Biden wants billionaires to pay at least 25 percent of their incomes in taxes. He wants corporations to pay at least 21 percent.
Biden would end corporate tax breaks for multimillion-dollar executive compensation.
And he’d quadruple the tax that corporations pay when they buy back their own shares of stock.
This would increase revenue. The conservative American Enterprise Institute’s analysis of Biden’s plan found that, rather than costing another $4.6 trillion, as Trump’s plan would, Biden’s changes would result in $3.8 trillion in increased revenue.
It would also make the tax system fairer and progressive.
There are obviously many reasons to reelect Biden in the fall. And tax policy sometimes causes eyes to glaze over. But it’s hugely important.
The $8.4 trillion difference in revenue between Trump’s plan to extend his tax cuts for the rich and big corporations and Biden’s plan to increase taxes on the rich and big corporations needs to be shouted from the rooftops.
It’s the difference between a government that’s capable of responding to what Americans need, and one designed to make the rich far richer.
Tuesday, June 25, 2024
Support For Same-Sex Marriage Remains High In U.S.
The charts above are from the Gallup Poll -- done between May 1st and 23rd of a nationwide sample of 1,024 adults, with a 4 point margin of error.
Abortion Is Still A Powerful Force In This Election
These charts are from the CBS News / YouGov Poll -- done between June 17th and 21st of a nationwide sample of 2,460 adults, with a 2.8 point margin of error.
Monday, June 24, 2024
Courts Have Already Made It Clear That Trump Is Unfit
The media seems bent on determining whether voters will change their minds about trump if he is convicted of the crimes in three remaining locations - federal crimes in Florida and Washington, D.C. and state crimes in Georgia. I say we should already know the answer - it will not really make a difference.
I say that because courts have already, numerous times, determined that Trump has committed an assortment of crimes. If that hasn't already convinced voters that Trump should not be elected, why would a couple more convictions make a difference.
Consider what courts have already determined that Trump has done:
RACISM: In the 1970's, Trump was determined to be in violation of laws preventing discrimination in housing. He was refusing to rent any of his apartments to Blacks. The Department of Justice filed suit against him. A settlement was reached where Trump agreed to stop the illegal discrimination, and was court-ordered to run ads in the Black community.
FRAUD: One of the best examples of this was "Trump University". It was supposed to educate students on how to make money in real estate, but it turned out to be just a front for taking their money. A court ordered it be shut down and student money refunded.
THEFT: Trump, and his sons, created a charity that was supposed to help the needy. But the charity turned out to be just another way to enrich himself. Trump used the charity's funds to buy things for himself (including for a portrait of himself). A court ordered the charity to be dissolved and for Trump to disseminate the funds to several real charities.
DEFAMATION: Trump lied and slandered E. Jean Carroll. He was found guilty (twice) and ordered to pay her millions of dollars.
SEXUAL ABUSE: In the defamation trial, it was judged that Trump was actually guilty of sexual abuse (rape) of Ms. Carroll.
ELECTION INTERFERENCE: In the most recent case, Trump was found guilty of 34 felony counts of trying to interfere with an election by paying a porn star to remain silent about their sexual liaison.
If Trump committed the remaining crimes of which he is accused, he should be tried and convicted. But that should not make anyone change their mind. There is already plenty of evidence that Trump is guilty of continuing criminal activity. There is already enough to show that he is unfit to serve in the presidency - or any other government position!
Sunday, June 23, 2024
Louisiana GOP Violates The Constitution With New Mandate
From Dan Rather:
Just when you think the audacity meter has reached its zenith, along comes the Republican-dominated Louisiana state legislature. This week it passed — and the state’s far-right governor signed — a law requiring all public classrooms to display the Ten Commandments.
Governor Jeff Landry argued that the Commandments are not simply religious treatise but “foundational documents of our state and national government,” perhaps trying to circumvent the inevitable hue and cry from just about everyone.
I’ll get to the hue and cry in a moment. First, if one wants to talk about foundational documents of our government, I think the Constitution is a better place to start. The First Amendment guarantees the separation of church and state. Full stop. Requiring the displaying of the Ten Commandments violates the constitutional principle of religious neutrality.
Honoring Supreme Court precedent is another foundational tenet of our democracy. Yes, this has happened before. In 1980’s Stone v. Graham, the Supreme Court struck down a Kentucky law that also required the display of the Ten Commandments in schools. The court found that the law violated the First Amendment’s establishment clause. In its opinion, the court wrote that the Ten Commandments are “undeniably a sacred text in the Jewish and Christian faiths” and displaying them “serves no ... educational function.”
One could argue that Louisiana should be more concerned with the quality of the education in those classrooms than what is on their walls. The state ranks near the bottom nationally for education and 50th for overall quality of life. Perhaps instead of this political stunt, Louisiana lawmakers should think about raising teacher pay, among the lowest in the nation. Or maybe try to keep kids in school? The state ranks 48th in graduation rate.
Putting an 11-by-14-inch poster “in a large easy to read font” in every classroom from kindergarten through graduate school will cost money. Don’t worry — it will be paid for by private donations. But who will pay for the inevitable and orchestrated legal fight to come? Louisiana taxpayers.
After eight years of a Democratic governor, the Republican- controlled state legislature is making up for what it sees as lost time. It recently turned down federal aid for summer food assistance, claiming it wants Louisiana families to be self-sufficient. Those same families suffer from a higher rate of food insecurity than most of the country. And Louisiana is the first state to advance a measure designating abortion pills as dangerous controlled substances.
Now to the hue and cry. It was loud and it was immediate, coming from, among others, the American Civil Liberties Union of Louisiana, Americans United for Separation of Church and State, and the Southern Poverty Law Center, which jointly stated that the law “violates students’ and families’ fundamental right to religious freedom.”
So why would Louisiana bother with what seems to be a cut-and-dried case of unconstitutionality?
“I can’t wait to be sued,” Governor Landry said at a Republican fundraiser in Nashville, according to The Tennessean. Good thing, because the ACLU has already filed suit.
All this is part of a larger national plan by a minority of Christians to inject expressions of their faith into everyday life, whether we like it or not. With a highly politicized and far-right majority on the Supreme Court at the ready, these groups believe they will get a friendlier reception from the court and could ultimately be successful.
They have reason to be hopeful. In 2022, the court sided with a high school football coach who argued he had the right to pray on the 50-yard line after games. The increasingly porous boundary between church and state seems to be eroding faster than a snowball in July. Even so, legal experts think this one is a real stretch.
Charles C. Haynes, an expert in religious liberty and civil discourse, told The New York Times that he believes the state is “overreaching,” adding that “even this court will have a hard time justifying” what Louisiana lawmakers came up with.
But perhaps most interesting is how do parents and lawmakers square the behavior of their revered MAGA leader with the Ten Commandments?
Democratic strategist David Axelrod on X had this recommendation: “Here’s a suggested quiz for the schoolchildren of Louisiana: ‘Look at the poster on the wall of the Ten Commandments and write down the total number Donald Trump has broken.’”
We could quibble about the total number, but let no one be mistaken: This new Louisiana law is a dangerous development for our country. Donald Trump champions a national movement to eliminate the separation between church and state.
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