Wednesday, April 09, 2025
The Issues That Americans Worry About
The chart above is from the Gallup Poll -- done between March 3rd and 16th of a nationwide sample of 1,002 adults, with a 4 point margin of error.
Most Americans Oppose Cutting Medicaid
Is Trump Intentionally Trying To Cause A Recession?
The following is just part of a post by former Labor Secretary Robert Reich:
On Friday, Trump called on investors to buy low as markets plunged. “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO GET RICH, RICHER THAN EVER BEFORE!!!” Trump said on Truth Social.
I don’t think Trump was referring to the current downdraft in stock prices. He was referring to the coming recession.
Last week’s stock sell-off wiped out roughly $6.6 trillion in value from corporations listed on American stock exchanges. The clear message coming out of stocks, bonds, oil, and the dollar is the growing risk of a recession.
On Friday, economists at JPMorgan, America’s largest bank by assets and market capitalization, put the odds of a coming recession at 60 percent. . . .
So a recession seems likely. The American economy will contract over the next six months.
This will cause massive hardship for lower-income Americans because they’re likely to be the first ones to lose their jobs — at the same time they’re paying more for much of what they need.
But a recession is not necessarily bad for Trump and his billionaire buddies. America’s oligarchy depends on periodic recessions.
Recessions are opportunities to buy up real estate, companies, and shares of stock at bargain-basement prices. Recessions also give political cover to Trump, Musk, and Republican efforts to reduce labor and environmental standards.
Also, remember the business cycle. A recession early in Trump’s term is politically better for Trump and his Republican allies than a recession later in the term.
I believe Trump’s plan is for a recession in 2025 so that he and his billionaire buddies can ride the wave of a recovery in 2026 — just in time for the midterm elections.
Tuesday, April 08, 2025
The TrumpMusk Attacks On Social Security Continue
Republicans have never liked Social Security, but the program was so popular and worked so well that they couldn't do away with it. The worst they could do was to chip away at it around the edges (like raising the retirement age).
But Donald Trump doesn't care. He's either a lame duck or the first U.S. dictator, and either way can do what he wants regardless of what the people want. He appointed Elon Musk as his hitman, and Musk is busy trying to destroy the Social Security system. He's laid of workers needed to run the system efficiently and is planning more layoffs - and he's making changes that make it harder for citizens to access the system.
They say they're just trying to eliminate the massive fraud in the system. Don't believe it. There is very little fraud in the system. And the changes being made doesn't eliminate any fraud. It just breaks the system so it doesn't work any more. That will give the Republicans the excuse they need to finally eliminate the system.
The GOP only cares about the rich - the people who don't need Social Security. They don't seem to care about the millions who depend on Social Security to live. For 40% of Social Security recipients, Social Security is their only income. For millions more, it keeps them out of poverty.
We don't have the luxury of waiting until the next election to save Social Security. In another year and a half, the system might not even exist anymore - or it will be so broken that it doesn't work anymore.
We must stop the attacks on Social Security NOW! Resist. Demonstrate. Put pressure on elected officials. Do whatever you can.
If you don't, you may find yourself without a Social Security system. That would be disastrous for today's seniors, and tomorrow's retirees!
No One Should Be Surprised - Trump Told Us What He Would Do
Trump is less than 100 days into his second term, but he has wasted no time. He has issued over 100 executive orders, appointed Elon Musk to destroy (or at least severely damage) critical government agencies, attempted to wrest control of government spending away from Congress, and put punitive tariffs on nearly every nation in the world. Together, these actions are cratering our economy and turning the world against us - even our friends.
But the crazy part to me is that many Americans seem to be surprised at what he is doing - including his MAGA supporters (who are now worried about Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and rising inflation) and his rich supporters (who are worried about what the tariffs will do).
No one should be surprised. Trump told us he would do these things while on the campaign trail. And his acolytes even published a book detailing what would happen if he was re-elected. Perhaps most of all, he is just being himself. He has not changed.
Trump is vindictive. He made it clear he wants retribution for everyone who has ever angered him.
Trump is economically ignorant. While he thinks he's the smartest person in any room, his tariffs and attacks on critical government agencies prove otherwise. Some people thought he'd do good because they thought he was a good businessman. He wasn't. His six bankruptcies show that. He couldn't even make money with a casino (which are money machines to other casino owners).
Trump is a narcissist. He cares only for himself. He told supporters he would lower prices on the first day of his term. Instead, his tariffs will supercharge inflation. His supporters will also be hurt by his attacks on agencies (Which many of them rely on to survive).
Trump is power hungry. He wants everyone to bow to him or suffer the consequences. He wants the power of a dictator. He was this way in the business world, and he's the same way as president.
It seems that most business people and most voters were just gullible. They believed what he said about himself, and not what he said he would do to the country. They are now regretting that.
Monday, April 07, 2025
Most People Disapprove Of The Job Trump Is Doing
The chart above reflects the results of the Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between March 30th and April 1st of a nationwide sample of 1,626 adults (including 1,465 registered voters). The margin of error is 3.3 points for adults and 3.1 points for registered voters.
Republicans Don't Care About Working Men And Women
Republicans would like you to believe their policies would be good for all Americans. They want you to believe that when they give more to the rich, the rich will then let some of that money trickle down to benefit everyone else in our society.
But that policy didn't work in the late ninetieth and early twentieth centuries. It just made the rich much richer and everyone else poorer - and resulted in the Great Depression. Fortunately, FDR and the Democrats changed the policy. The result was several decades of growth and economic equity.
But around 1980, the Republicans gained enough power to change economic policy - and they went right back to the failed "trickle-down" economic policy of the past. And that change once again favored the rich to the detriment of everyone else. While the rich saw their income grow by 300 to 400 percent, the bottom 80% of Americans struggled to keep up with inflation.
And the Republicans refused to initiate any policy to help working men and women.
They blocked all attempts to raise the minimum wage to a livable wage, which would have lifted millions of workers out of poverty.
They made it harder to start or join a labor union, even though that would have helped workers climb into the middle class.
They blocked efforts to make sure women received pay equal to that of men.
They promoted the deportation of low-wage immigrants (who were doing jobs Americans didn't want) and promoted the importation of skilled immigrants (to take good jobs that Americans did want).
They are now trying to substantially cut programs needed by the working class - like Medicaid, which many depend on to cover the children and their elderly parents (in nursing homes). They also are doing serious damage to Social Security and Medicare, which workers depend on for their retirement years.
Now they are allowing Donald Trump to impose tariffs on almost every country - a move that will raise prices on nearly everything. This won't affect the rich (who have enough money to buy what they want - no matter the price). But it will take a huge bite out of the already stretched-thin budgets of workers.
Republicans have done their best to make the richer much richer, but have done nothing to make life easier for working men and women.They, like Trump, are big on promises - but promises mean nothing if not followed by actions. Their actions don't help workers. Too often, those actions hurt them.
Sunday, April 06, 2025
The Public Knows The Tariffs Will Hurt Average Americans
The chart above reflects the results of the YouGov Poll -- done on April 3rd of a nationwide sample of 3,631 adults.
Where The Voters Are On Social Security (And Where They Think The Parties Are)
The charts above are from the Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between March 30th and April 1 of a nationwide sample of 1,465 registered voters, with a 3.1 point margin of error.
Over 1200 Cities Nationwide Protested Against Trump On Saturday
Over 1200 cities across the country saw protests against Trump and Musk on Saturday. And there were even protests in England, Germany, and France.
Saturday, April 05, 2025
The Unemployment Rate For March Climbed Slightly To 4.2%
The Labor Department released the unemployment report for March on Friday. It showed the economy produced about 228,000 jobs for the month. That was not bad, but not enough to keep the unemployment rate from rising to 4.2% (0.1% more than February).
Here are the relevant statistics for March:
SIZE OF THE CIVILIAN WORK FORCE
170,591,000
OFFICIAL NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS
7,083,000
OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
4.2%
DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT
Adult men...............3.8%
Adult women...............3.7%
Teens (16-19)...............13.7%
Whites...............3.7%
Blacks...............6.2%
Asians...............3.5%
Hispanics...............5.1%
No HS diploma...............5.8%
HS graduate...............4.1%
Some college...............3.5%
Bachelor's deg. or more...............2.6%
NUMBER OF MARGINALLY-ATTACHED WORKERS (unemployed but not counted)
1,687,000
MORE REALISTIC NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS (official + marginally-attached)
8,770,000
MORE REALISTIC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
5.1%
Republicans Are NOT Fiscally Responsible - And They're Trying To Hide That
Catherine Rampell (The Washington Post) explains the nasty trick Republicans want to use to hide the cost of their tax cuts for the rich:
Senate Republicans on Wednesday decided their party alone will control how math works. This is a pressing legislative question at present, because pretzeling budgetary outcomes into prettier shapes and sizes will determine whether Republicans can pass President Donald Trump’s promised tax cuts.
Those cuts are very expensive. They include not only extensions of the 2017 tax law provisions (set to expire this year), but they also lower corporate rates as well as carveouts for tips, auto loan payments and other goodies. In total, Trump’s preferred tax agenda could cost between $5 trillion and $11 trillion over the next decade.
This is inconvenient. Republicans like to pretend they’re fiscal conservatives (at least some of the time). They would prefer not to acknowledge the hefty price tag, and they also don’t want to fully offset it with unpopular spending cuts.
So, they’ve devised a cheat. Rather than admitting how much their tax agenda would cost, they are simply asserting that they get their first $4 trillion — free!
Here’s how: Republicans say that because some (expiring) tax cuts have been in place since 2017, extending them shouldn’t be recorded as costing anything, because they wouldn’t feel different. This is ... not how budgets work. As I’ve explained before, it’s like saying even though your car lease has ended, leasing another car should count as “free” because you got used to the convenience of having a vehicle around.
Normally, neutral referees are available to call out this kind of funny business.
First, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office “scores” significant legislation, to determine how much a bill would change revenue and spending in the years ahead, compared with what would happen if Congress allowed existing law to remain as it is. Then, a person called the Senate parliamentarian would confirm that the CBO number matches what lawmakers had previously agreed their bill would cost. If it doesn’t, the bill becomes much harder to pass.
Republicans have been trying to persuade the Senate parliamentarian to adopt their preferred math. So far, the parliamentarian has delayed making a ruling. But on Wednesday, Senate Budget Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) announced the parliamentarian won’t ever need to decide. He plans to do what the party wants either way.
“I have the authority to determine baseline numbers for spending and revenue,” Graham said in a statement. Under that authority, he said, he can use the special book-cooking math — a “current policy baseline” — that grants his party $4 trillion in freebies.
In other words: 2+2=5, if Republicans decree it so.
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Wisconsin May Be A Bellwether - But the 2026 Election Still Won't Be Easy
Democrats are celebrating the Supreme Court win in Wisconsin, and they should. It was a good win.
But it is no guarantee that Democrats will easily glide to a huge win in the 2026 midterm elections.
Why do I say that?
For one thing, many of the MAGA voters didn't turn out for the Wisconsin election. They looked at Trump's 11 point win in that state in 2024, saw Musk was pouring millions into the Supreme Court race, and decided an easy win was in the bag and they didn't need to show up. They won't make that mistake in 2026.
Musk involving himself in the race was also a mistake. He (and Republicans) misjudged just how unpopular he is currently. However, that may not be a problem in November of 2026. It is likely that he will have already done the damage that Trump wanted him to do by then - and will no longer be a part of the Trump administration.
In addition, Democrats are not very popular right now. Several polls put their approval at an embarrassing 37%.
The one thing Democrats have going for them is that inflation hasn't let up, and Trump's new tariffs are very likely to make it even worse. Republicans are trying to counter that that claiming the pain will be for a short time so long-time gains can be accomplished. They need to convince independent voters (who voted Republican because they thought they would fix inflation) that is the case.
It will be up to Democratic candidates to get the truth out. The continuing (and increasing) inflation can no longer be blamed on Biden - or any other Democrat. Thanks to his new tariffs on nearly every country, Trump will own the inflation. The pain will be long-term and the gain nonexistent. Democrats must make sure voters understand that.
Trump is making life much more difficult for working Americans. If the voters hold him responsible, then Democrats will do well. But it won't be easy. It never is.
Friday, April 04, 2025
Most People Think Trump Will Try For A Third Term (But Shouldn't Be Allowed To)
The chart above is from the YouGov Poll -- done between March 30th and April 1st of a nationwide sample of 1,626 adults, with a 3.3 point margin of error.
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