According to CNN's delegate count, Obama has a lead of 143 delegates, and there aren't many states left to choose their delegates. The Pennsylvania primary is looming on the horizon -- only eight days away. It is critical that Clinton win there with a large margin, or her campaign is effectively over.
But with each passing day, things are looking better for Obama in Pennsylvania. There are several reasons for that. One is money. Obama has been much better in raising money since January, and has much more to spend in Pennsylvania. Currently, he is outspending Clinton there by about three to one. That has to be having at least a small effect on the campaign. A few days ago, the gap had closed to about 6 points in the polls.
A second phenomenon that probably favors Obama is the influx of new voters. Since January, Pennsylvania has registered over 210,000 new voters and 70% of them registered as Democrats. If it follows the trend set in other states (and it looks like it will), then most of those new voters are either young or black. Both are groups that heavily favor Obama.
A third factor is mistakes made in the last couple of weeks by the Clinton campaign. Lies, or "mis-statements", by both Hillary and Bill Clinton about several subjects are causing many voters to take a second look at Clinton, and some are beginning to have doubts about her honesty.
A fourth thing that could hurt the Clinton campaign is the perception that Clinton may not be as opposed to Free Trade Agreements as she says she is. It has already been shown that she actually worked to help her husband pass NAFTA (although she claimed she was opposed to it). Now it has come out that both her husband and her chief campaign strategist support the Columbian Free Trade Agreement. It is too early to tell if this is going to hurt, but if blue-collar workers get turned off by this, it could be devastating to the campaign.
The fifth factor is a bit of a surprise to me. The most loyal demographic group that Clinton has had in this campaign is white women. Now it looks like some of them may be defecting to Obama. The latest Quinnipiac Poll shows that Clinton's support in this group has dropped by 6%. A Lifetime Network poll showed that 26% of white women like Clinton less now than they did in January. Clinton simply cannot afford to lose any support in this group.
The final factor involves the delegate math. There are some who believe the race is really over, since it is highly unlikely that Clinton can overtake Obama in pledged delegates. This group wants Democrats to stop the bleeding and turn their efforts to defeating John McCain.
A month ago, it looked like Clinton had a big win in Pennsylvania all sewed up. But the above six factors have combined to put that in doubt. Senator Arlen Spector, who may know Pennsylvania politics as well as anyone (and who doesn't have a dog in this fight), said the other day that he believes Obama will win Pennsylvania.
At this point, I don't know who will win Pennsylvania. But it has turned into a very interesting contest. We may have to stay up late on the 22nd to find out who wins that state.
HILLARY DOE'S NOT KNOW WHAT IT MEANS TO BE POOR. GROWING UP IN PITTSBURGH WAS HARD FOR ME. I GOT MY MOM AND DAD. THAT RAISE ME. BUT THEY HAD IT HARD LIVING PAYCHECK TO PAYCHECK. TO KEEP FOOD ON THE TABLE. MRS. HILLARY NEVER HAD TO LIVE LIKE THIS. OBAMA CAME FROM A POOR SINGLE ONE PARENT HOME. WHEN HE SAID ABOUT BITTER'' I WAS VERY BITTER LIKE ALMOST 75% OF PITTSBURGH KNOWS THE BITTER OF NOT HAVING A JOB, HOME, FOOD, CLOTHES AND NO PROGRAMS TO HELP OUT. THERE'S MORE PEOPLE MOVING TO OTHER STATE'S. BECAUSE OF THE LOST OF JOBS HERE. SCHOOL TAXE'S ARE HIGH HERE. GOING TO COLLEGE HE IS HIGH. SO MOST GO TO BUSINESS SCHOOL. THE MORE YOU GO DOWNTOWN THERE IS MORE HOMELESS PEOPLE THAN THERE ALMOST MORE PEOPLE WHO WORK. SO I HOPE OBAMA WIN'S. SO WE HERE IN PITTSBURGH COULD STARTED WORKING FOR A BETTER TOMORROW FOR OUR CHILDREN AND FAMILY.
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