Who Replaces Hutchison ?

Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison has made it very clear that she going to run for governor in 2010. When she does, it will open up a chance for someone else to win her senate seat. It's not yet known whether she will resign the seat before or after the Republican primary next year, but if Public Policy Polling (PPP) is right then it doesn't matter -- the seat will be available.

Public Policy Polling released a poll last Tuesday that shows Hutchison with a 25% lead over her opponent in the Republican primary -- Rick Perry. That's a huge lead to have over a sitting governor, especially one that got only 39% of the vote in his last general election. It looks like the likely Republican voters are tired of "Governor Goodhair".

So, who will fill the vacancy left by Hutchison in the United States Senate? PPP also tried to answer that question, but the results were not nearly as decisive as the figures in the governor's race.

There are three main Republican contenders for the post (Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, Attorney General Greg Abbott, State Senator Florence Shapiro), and two Democratic contenders (former Comptroller John Sharp, Houston Mayor Bill White). PPP poled to see if there was a clear leader among these five candidates, and found there wasn't.

Dewhurst leads Sharp 42%-36% and White 42%-37%. Abbott leads Sharp 44%-36% and White 42%-36%. Shapiro barely trailed Sharp and beats White by 1 point. Dewhurst and Abbott look pretty even, but neither gets near 50%. That bodes well for the Democrats, and means it could be a very close election.

The only real loser here is Florence Shapiro, who is the fartherest to the right of any of the candidates. I think even the Republicans know she is also the weakest candidate, and would give Democrats the best chance of snatching the seat away from them.

This coming senate race could be a lot of fun for both parties.