Dems May Be Rebounding Just In Time

For months now we have been hearing about how angry the people are, and how this anger is going to present itself at the polls as a huge Republican victory.   There is no doubt that the American people are angry about the current economic recession that seems to be without end (and regardless of what economists say, it won't be over until we see strong and sustained job creation).

Republicans think this unhappiness with the economy will send voters flocking to vote for their party.   But the truth is that the American people are unhappy with both political parties -- the Republicans who caused the recession and the Democrats who have failed to take bold enough action to stop the recession.   Americans don't want to return to the failed Reagan-Bush economic policies, but they also don't want to go on spinning our wheels with the timid Democratic economic policies.

For a few months now, the Republicans have been leading in the polls regarding voting in a generic House election -- giving the impression that that could possibly take back the House of Representatives.   But there are a couple of things wrong with that scenario.   First, people don't vote in a generic House race.   They vote in a race where they know the candidates, and most polls show that the voters are still most likely to vote for their incumbent representative.   While they may be unhappy with one or both parties, they generally think their own representative is doing a good job.

Also, most Americans don't pay much attention to politics and politicians until right before an election.   There were a lot of angry Republicans after the last election in 2008, and they manifested this anger by becoming teabaggers.   Until recently they have been the loudest voices in politics, giving the impression that they would wield an inordinately large power over the coming election.   Meanwhile, those who are happy with the party in power (Democrats) and those who don't live with politics all the time (Independents), generally went on with their lives.

But we are now only one month away from the election, and their are signs that the general populace is starting to pay attention.   And it looks like the Democrats may be starting to rebound just in time for the election.   A new poll done for Newsweek by the Princeton Survey Research Associates International shows that the voters think the Democrats would be better on all issues but one -- terrorism.   And the coming election will not be about terrorism.   The old saying "It's the economy, stupid" has never been more applicable to an election than it is to the coming election.

The poll was conducted on September 29th and 30th and has a margin of error of 3.8%.   Here are some of the poll's results that shows the Democrats may not be in as bad a shape as some pundits think:

If the election was held today, would you vote for a Republican or Democrat for Congress?

Republican...............43%

Democrat...............48%

Undecided...............9%

Is your vote for Congress a vote for or against President Obama?

For...............32%

Against...............30%

Not a factor...............33%

Don't know...............5%

Are you angry with the representative who is from your own Congressional district?

Yes...............30%

No...............62%

Don't know...............8%

Which party will do a better job on the following issues?

TERRORISM

Republicans...............40%

Democrats...............34%

Both...............11%

Neither...............10%

Don't know...............5%

AFGHANISTAN WAR

Republicans...............32%

Democrats...............38%

Both...............8%

Neither...............15%

Don't know...............7%

ECONOMY

Republicans...............34%

Democrats...............44%

Both...............8%

Neither...............11%

Don't know...............3%

HEALTH CARE

Republicans...............34%

Democrats...............48%

Both...............5%

Neither...............9%

Don't know...............4%

IMMIGRATION

Republicans...............37%

Democrats...............39%

Both...............8%

Neither...............11%

Don't know...............5%

FEDERAL SPENDING & THE DEFICIT

Republicans...............36%

Democrats...............40%

Both...............6%

Neither...............14%

Don't know...............4%

SOCIAL SECURITY

Republicans...............31%

Democrats...............45%

Both...............7%

Neither...............13%

Don't know...............4%

TAXES

Republicans...............37%

Democrats...............42%

Both...............7%

Neither...............11%

Don't know...............3%

UNEMPLOYMENT

Republicans...............33%

Democrats...............45%

Both...............6%

Neither...............11%

Don't know...............5%

REFORM OF FINANCIAL & BANKING INDUSTRIES

Republicans...............29%

Democrats...............43%

Both...............7%

Neither...............13%

Don't know...............8%

ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT

Republicans...............29%

Democrats...............48%

Both...............10%

Neither...............9%

Don't know...............4%

EDUCATION

Republicans...............28%

Democrats...............47%

Both...............10%

Neither...............11%

Don't know...............4%

There is no doubt that voters are dissatisfied with how things are going right now -- 68% say they are dissatisfied.   But that does not mean they are just angry with Democrats and ready to kick them out.   They are angry with both parties.   But the above numbers do not foretell a great shift to the Republican Party.   On the contrary, they show the people might well be willing to give the Democrats more time to get something done about the economy (since they have not even had two years yet).

Of course it all depends on who shows up at the polls on November 2nd.   The Republicans have been energized to vote for a while.   Now that the election is drawing closer, it looks like the Democrats and Independents are starting to pay more attention and get energized themselves.   I still expect the Republicans to pick up a few seats since that is only normal in an off-year election, but I don't expect them to regain control of either the House or the Senate.

Get your popcorn ready.   It should be interesting.