Early State Polls Show Romney In Lead

Mitt Romney still seems to be the favorite choice of the political pundits. Recently even Democratic pundit James Carville, usually a pretty astute person politically, came out and said he believed Mitt Romney would be the Republican presidential candidate. Carville told George Stephanopoulos that Romney will win because Perry and Cain aren't serious candidates, and said:

 "I don't think so. I mean Rick Perry's completely blown himself up. There's zero chance that Herman Cain's going to be the nominee. The only thing that I can see is that Republicans just don't like him enough that he can't accumulate half the delegates as he goes through this. That these candidates just keep going and becoming such an irritant that he can't close the deal but that's almost impossible to imagine."

But I'm not ready to crown Romney the winner yet. He may have the lead, but he has yet to show that he can get any teabagger votes -- something he will have to do to get the nomination. And the race is still very fluid. This is shown by a new CNN/Time Poll done by ORC between October 20th and 25th. The poll questioned Republicans in the four earliest caucus/primary states -- 401 in Florida, 405 in Iowa, 400 in New Hampshire, and 400 in South Carolina. Here's how it stands in those states right now:



FLORIDA
Romney...............30%
Cain...............18%
Gingrich...............9%
Perry...............9%
Paul...............6%
Bachmann...............4%
Huntsman...............1%
Santorum...............1%
Someone else...............1%
None/No opinion...............21%

IOWA
Romney...............24%
Cain...............21%
Paul...............12%
Gingrich...............10%
Perry...............10%
Bachmann...............6%
Santorum...............2%
Huntsman...............1%
None/No opinion...............14%

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Romney...............40%
Cain...............13%
Paul...............12%
Huntsman...............6%
Gingrich...............5%
Perry...............4%
Bachmann...............2%
Santorum...............1%
None/No opinion...............19%

SOUTH CAROLINA
Romney...............25%
Cain...............23%
Paul...............12%
Perry...............11%
Gingrich...............8%
Bachmann...............4%
Huntsman...............1%
Santorum...............1%
None/No opinion...............15%

At first glance it seems that Romney is in good shape, but looks can be deceiving. This race is still very fluid. Note that the None/No opinion group is still very high in all of those states. And it gets even worse. Many of those who have picked a candidate say they still might change their vote. Here are the percentages of those who might change for these four states:

Florida...............50%
Iowa...............62%
New Hampshire...............48%
South Carolina...............56%

With percentages that high saying they might change their mind, and with Romney unable to show he can get any teabagger votes, I don't think this race is in any condition to be called -- not for Romney or anyone else.