Ron Paul Is Now The Favorite In Iowa

It's now looking like Newt Gingrich has indeed tumbled out of the lead in Iowa, and Ron Paul has taken his place. This is shown by yet another Iowa poll. The KCRG/Gazette/ISU Poll was taken over a ten day period from December 8th through December 18th. It shows Gingrich still in second place, but that may be because the polling started before his precipitous fall started and therefore gives him more support than he actually has at this point.

But even more than also documenting Gingrich's fall from grace are a couple of other things it shows. One is that Paul support is deeper than that of the other candidates. About 51% of Paul's supporters say they will definitely support him at the caucuses. Committed support for the other candidates is much lower -- with Romney coming in second at 16.1% and Gingrich third at 15.2%. Only 28.1% of the Iowa voters have definitely made up their minds about who they will vote for - a remarkably low number since the caucuses are less than two weeks away.

The other interesting thing is the flattening out of support among several candidates now that both Cain and Gingrich have fallen. Several polls now have shown Perry and Bachmann (and possibly Santorum) gaining some support. While Paul will probably finish first in the caucuses, there is the very real possibility that several candidates leave the state with some delegates. Here are the poll's current numbers:

Ron Paul...............27.5%
Newt Gingrich...............25.3%
Mitt Romney...............17.5%
Rick Perry...............11.2%
Michele Bachmann...............7.4%
Rick Santorum...............4.9%
Jon Huntsman...............0.3%
Undecided...............5.4%

An even newer poll shows more clearly the flattening effect Gingrich's fall is having on the race in Iowa. The We Ask America Poll (done on December 20th with 1,250 GOP voters, with only a 2.77 point margin of error) shows the following numbers:

Ron Paul...............19%
Mitt Romney...............18%
Newt Gingrich...............16%
Michele Bachmann...............15%
Rick Perry...............11%
Rick Santorum...............9%
Jon Huntsman...............4%
Undecided...............8%

Obviously the situation in Iowa (and other places) is still very fluid and could change on an almost daily basis. And it certainly could change again before January 3rd. I personally think Paul will probably finish in first place, but it could be close. And it's anybody's guess as to how the rest will finish. That should make for a fun night of caucusing.