GOP Voter Enthusiasm Is Waning

There is little doubt that voter enthusiasm can swing an election. We even have recent proof of it. In the 2010 election, the Republican Party voters were very enthused -- wanting to make up for their humiliating defeat in the 2008 election. But the Democrats (and Independents), disappointed by the continuing economic disaster in the country, were not as enthused. The result was a huge victory for the Republicans -- giving them control of the House of Representatives.

Several months ago, the political pundits were saying this same scenario could play out in the 2012 elections. Republicans had visions of taking back the White House, and were very enthusiastic about that prospect. And most of the polls showed that Republican voters were more enthusiastic about voting in 2012 than the Democratic voters were. But that was then, things have now changed. There is now evidence that voter enthusiasm among Republicans is waning.

Part of this evidence is from a new poll done by Public Policy Polling. Six months ago when they polled voters about their enthusiasm, Republican voter had a six point lead over Democratic voters. But their newest poll shows that has now flip-flopped and the Democrats now have a 4 point edge in enthusiasm. Normally, as an election gets closer the voter enthusiasm rises, and that is happening among Democrats -- but not among Republicans.

The other evidence of waning Republican enthusiasm is in the declining participation in the party's presidential primaries and caucuses. While the voter enthusiasm started off fairly well  by slightly topping 2008 turnout in Iowa and New Hampshire, and significantly topping 2008 turnout in South Carolina, it started dropping off significantly after that. Here is the turnout in all the states that have voted so far for both 2008 and 2012:

IOWA CAUCUS
2008...............118,696
2012...............121,479

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY
2008...............239,315
2012...............248,448

SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY
2008...............445,499
2012...............603,856

FLORIDA PRIMARY
2008...............1,949,498
2012...............1,672,352

NEVADA CAUCUS
2008...............44,315
2012...............32,961

MINNESOTA CAUCUS
2008...............62,837
2012...............47,801

COLORADO CAUCUS
2008...............55,845
2012...............65,535

MISSOURI PRIMARY
2008...............588,926
2012...............251,868

TOTAL VOTE SO FAR
2008...............3,504,931
2012...............3,044,300

That's a drop of 460,631 voters in just the first eight states to vote (or 13.15%) from the figures for 2008. The fact is that Republican voters are just not that excited about their presidential candidate choices this year, and that is especially true of Mitt Romney. An interesting facet of the Colorado caucuses is that in the counties supporting Romney the vote was down, while the counties supporting Santorum showed a rise in voter participation.

The cartoon at the top of this post contains a lot of truth -- Romney supporters may have accepted him, but they are not excited about him being their nominee. If he does eventually become the nominee, that is the kind of thing that could hurt Republicans in the general election. The question now is can this be fixed. I'm not sure it can. Romney has become the poster boy for Wall Street, and that is something even rank-and-file Republicans find it hard to stomach.