Good News - But Don't Get Complacent

Right after the elections of 2010 it looked like the Republican Party was getting the upper hand again, in spite of the gross mismanagement they displayed during the Bush administration. But that turned out to be a combination of avery enthusiastic Republican base and the general population's disgust with high unemployment and a bad economy. Much has happened since then to change that dynamic, including a diminishing unemployment rate and the public realization that putting the Republicans in charge of Congress was a bad mistake.

A new survey from the Pew Research Center shows that things are definitely moving toward the direction of the Democrats having a very good election this November. When the public was asked which political party they viewed more favorably, the Democrats won hands down (49% to 36%). That's a 13 point difference -- the largest lead the Democrats have had since very shortly after President Obama was sworn in as president (and that lead has been growing recently).

But it's not just Democrats in general who are benefitting from the Republican mistakes of the recent past. The survey shows President Obama is now back to a 50% approval rating, and would easily beat either of the two leading Republican presidential candidates. Here are those numbers:

President Obama...............54%
Mitt Romney...............42%

President Obama...............57%
Rick Santorum...............39%

In both instances, the lead has grown substantially in just the last month. In February President Obama led Romney by only 8 points, but now the lead is 12 points (it was only 5 points in January). And President Obama has increased a 10 lead over Santorum in February to a current lead of about 18 points. That's the good news.

But here is what's starting to worry me a bit. At least 59% of the general population now believes the president will be re-elected (including 30% of Republicans). And that grows to 68% of the population if Santorum is the Republican candidate (including 43% of Republicans). Those are the kind of numbers that make voters complacent, and complacent voters may not vote (thinking their vote is not needed).

The Democrats are in good shape, and that seems to improve with each passing month. But "good shape" doesn't translate into a win at the polls unless voters are excited enough to actually go vote. The Democratic Party must keep voters engaged and enthusiastic about voting. They can't just count on good poll numbers carrying them through the election. We know the Republicans will have the money to mount an effective GOTV campaign (Wall Street will see to that). The Democrats must do the same.

Things are looking up for Democrats. Now they have to make sure the vote is high like it was in 2008.