Can Willard Defy Historical Precedent ?

(This caricature of Republican candidate Willard Mitt Romney is by DonkeyHotey.)

In the history of this country it has been very difficult for a presidential candidate to lose either their birth state or their current home state and win the presidency. It has been done a few times, but not many. Here are the exceptions:

George W. Bush won his home state (Texas), but lost his birth state (Connecticut) in 2000 and 2004.

George H.W. Bush won his home state (Texas), but lost his birth state (Massachusetts) in 1988.

Richard Nixon won his birth state (California), but lost his home state (New York) in 1968.

Woodrow Wilson won his birth state (Virginia), but lost his home state (New Jersey) in 1916.

Abraham Lincoln won his home state (Illinois), but lost his birth state (Kentucky) in 1860 and 1864.

That's only five presidents who have won without winning both their birth state and home sate. That shows us just how difficult that is. But if Willard Mitt Romney is to win the presidency, he must pull off  an even more difficult feat. He must win without winning either his birth state or his home state.

Willard was born in Michigan, where his father was a pretty popular governor. But that doesn't seem to be helping him there. All the polls taken in Michigan show Willard trailing by several points. Short of an election day miracle, he is going to lose Michigan.

What about his home state? Actually, he has two home states. He has a home in Massachusetts, where he is registered to vote, and he has a home in California, where he lives when he is not campaigning. And a snowball has a better chance of surviving a summer in the Mojave Desert than Willard does of winning either one of those states.

In failing to carry either his birth state or his two home states, Willard cedes 82 electoral votes to the president -- California (55), Michigan (16), and Massachusetts (11). That's a pretty good deficit to start out with, especially considering the president will win both his home state (Illinois) and his birth state (Hawaii).

Can Willard do it? Probably not, but there is a faint historical sliver of hope. It has been done once before -- by James Polk. In 1844, Polk lost both his home state (Tennessee) and his birth state (North Carolina), but still managed to eke out an electoral college win over Henry Clay. We'll find out tomorrow if Willard can duplicate Polk's feat.