The GOP Is Still Losing Older Voters

The age group that can be relied on to vote anytime an election is held are those voters who are 65 and older. A higher percentage of these senior voters turn out to vote than any other age group -- and not just for presidential elections, but all elections.

In the past few elections, the Republicans have been able to count on the senior vote going their way by a significant majority -- and especially in an off-year election, counter-acting the effect of GOP losses among minorities, women, and young voters (many of whom don't show up to vote in an off-year election).

One of the reasons the GOP was able to score big in the 2010 election (and seize the House of Representatives) was because seniors turned out in large numbers, and they voted for the Republicans by a whopping 21 point margin over Democrats. A reasonable person would think the GOP owed these seniors a debt of gratitude, and would take senior issues very seriously.

But reasonable doesn't seem to be a Republican value, and the GOP has been taking seniors for granted for the years since 2010. Seniors overwhelmingly support Social Security and Medicare, and many of them depend on those programs to keep them healthy and help them stay out of poverty. So what do the Republicans do? They vote to privatize both Social Security and Medicare, and when that fails they call for benefit cuts to both programs (which would hurt millions of seniors).

And it looks like those senior voters are finally starting to figure out that the Republican Party doesn't have the best interest of seniors in mind. In the last three years, that 21 point margin has been whittled down to nothing. By June of 2013, seniors preferred Republicans by only a single point (43% to 42%), and that razor thin margin was the same in October of 2013 (44% to 43%). But it gets worse for the GOP. By December of 2013, the margin had grown to 4 points, in favor of the Democrats (44% to 48%).

And making matters even worse, these are not national numbers. These seniors are those who live in the 50 most competitive Republican-held congressional districts. Democracy Corps polled 750 voters in those 50 Republican districts between December 3rd and 8th (and the survey had a margin of error of 3.58 points).

This should worry Republicans. There is a very good chance they could lose the senior vote in these competitive districts -- and that could seriously damage their hopes of hanging on to their majority in the House. All the Democrats need is to win 17 of these 50 districts to flip the House.