The Republicans were sure they could make up some ground in the Senate in this year's election, and maybe even retake control of that legislative body. And three states they were pretty sure they could take seats away from the Democrats (states where they thought they had the advantage) were Arkansas, North Carolina, and Virginia. They also assumed it would be easy to hold the seat of Minority Leader McConnell in Kentucky.
At least that was the thinking last year, and last year's polls showed it might be true. But things are changing. Three of those four races are now a toss-up (with the candidates being within the margin of error), and the other is looking very good for the Democrat.
Virginia is starting to look pretty safe for Warner (the Democrat), since he now leads Republican Party stalwart Gillespie by 14 points (49% to 35%). Hagan is also bouncing back in North Carolina, and is within the margin of error of both the most popular Republicans (with a large undecided vote). And while Pryor was trailing Cotton in previous polls in Arkansas, he has now regained a small lead (although it is also within the margin of error).
But the most worrisome race for the Republicans has to be in Kentucky. McConnell was expected to be easily re-elected, since is he is party's Senate majority leader. But he just can't seem to shake Democrat Alison Grimes, who has been within every poll's margin of error for several months now. That race is currently at 45% for Grimes and 44% for McConnell, with 12% of voters undecided -- and that's in spite of the fact that McConnell's been running negative ads concerning Grimes for a few months now. There is a real chance that McConnell could lose in November.
Of course, it's still early and those races could go either way. It will be interesting to watch them.
Don't forget that the Turtle still has a primary to win, too.
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