Does The GOP Really Have The Advantage In November ?

I'm still hearing a lot of Washington and New York political pundits saying the November election is a foregone conclusion -- the Republicans will win and keep their majority in the House, and probably even seize control of the Senate. I'm still not ready to buy that. As the charts above show, the public is still angry with Congress -- both parties in Congress. But they are more disappointed in the Republicans (who have control of the House).

While the gerrymandering the GOP did in 2010 will help them, I still think the election will be won by turnout -- with a small turnout favoring the GOP and a large one favoring the Democrats. And right now, no one can predict what that turnout will be. But a new poll seems to give Democrats a slight edge. It is the Reason-Rupe Survey (done between March 26th and 30th of a national sample of 1,003 adults, with a margin of error of 3.6 points).

Note that there is a 10 point gap in party identification (including leaners) and a smaller advantage in electoral preference. But the Democrats don't need to win big -- just to flip 17 seats to take control of the House. And these numbers show us that is possible if the Democrats can turn out their vote.

And I believe there is one more advantage the Democrats hold (if they will use it). Most Americans want the minimum wage raised to $10.10 an hour, and the Republicans will fight tooth-and-nail to keep that from happening. This poll showed that 2 out of 3 people want the minimum wage raised.

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The survey also queried Republicans and Democrats on their presidential preferences for 2016. Here are those results (but as you can see, there are still no surprises).