Generic Congressional Ballot Favors Democrats

The chart above shows the weekly results of a congressional generic ballot (showing party, but not specific candidates) for 2014. These results come from weekly surveys done by the Rasmussen Poll (the last one being done between May 12th and 18th of 3,500 likely voters, with a margin of error of 2 points). Note that while the results for the two parties have gone up and down, the last three weeks have favored the Democrats -- with the most recent survey showing the Democrats with a 4 point advantage (41% to 37%).

This does not mean all seats are favored for Democrats by that margin -- since there are safe seats for both parties. But it could well come in to play in competitive congressional districts -- and the Republicans hold more of those than the Democrats do. Only 17 seats flipping from Republicans to the Democrats would give the Democrats control of the House of Representatives -- and I remain convinced that is possible. It will take a lot of work and a good voter turnout, but it can be done.