Is The Media Right About A GOP Congressional Lead ?

Giving in to my masochistic urges, I spent most of Monday afternoon watching the major TV news outlets -- and one thing I heard over and over from the talking heads was how the Republicans had taken the lead once again on a generic congressional ballot ( a ballot with only parties indicated, but no names of individual candidates). They were basing that opinion on a newly released survey from the Pew Research Center (which showed the Republicans with a 47% to 43% lead among 1162 respondents  -- and even with the 3.3 point margin of error that would give the GOP a slim lead).

If that's the only poll that is applicable, then it would be understandable how they could believe the GOP now had the edge in the coming congressional election. But it's not the only poll. Two other polls have been released asking the same question (the CNN/ORC Poll and the Rasmussen Poll) -- and their results are a bit different.

The CNN/ORC Poll questioned 1,008 adults and that survey had the GOP with a 1 point lead (46% to 45%). But that poll had a 3.5 point margin of error -- meaning that the race was really a dead heat, with neither party having a statistically significant lead.

Then we have the Rasmussen Poll. They queried 3,500 likely voters, the largest sample of any of the three polls, and they found the Democrats still had an edge (41% to 37%), and even when you consider the 2 point margin of error the Democrats would retain a small lead.

So we have three different polls -- one giving the Republicans a small lead, one giving the Democrats a small lead, and the third saying the congressional election is a dead heat. The only thing they agree on is that it's a close contest right now. Personally, I believe that verifies what I've been saying for a while now -- that this election will depend on turnout. If large numbers of people vote this November, the Democrats will win. If the turnout is small, then we'll see a repeat of the disastrous 2010 election. It really is that simple.

The Democrats need 17 seats more than they currently have to flip the House over to their control, and I still believe that is possible -- since the Republicans hold more competitive seats than the Democrats do (and there is a definite anti-incumbent feeling in the country). But it won't be easy. Democrats need to works their butts off and make sure there is a substantial turnout in November. They will be aided by the fact that the GOP is on the wrong side of most issues the public cares about -- but they cannot count on that alone. They must make sure the voters know that, and that those voters go to the polls in large numbers.

The CNN/ORC Poll also did a demographic breakdown of support for each party (see chart below). As you can see, the size of the turnout is not all that's important, but also what groups make up that turnout and where they are from is also important.