The Only Surprise About Iraq Is That It Took This Long

(This image of Islamic forces in Iraq is from Crash Magazine Online.)

It looks like the puppet government installed by the United States in Iraq is crumbling. Sunni militants (ISIS) have now taken over the northern half of the country, and are threatening Baghdad -- and the Iraqi soldiers that the U.S. spent billions to train are running away rather than fight (which shouldn't surprise us since they joined the army because we had destroyed their country and there were no jobs available -- not because they loved the puppet government and were willing to fight for it).

One of the silliest stories about this new Iraqi crisis is that CNN is saying that American intelligence knew this was coming. Well, DUH! Anyone with half a brain knew this was coming. They just didn't expect it to take this long to happen. And the United States must accept the primary responsibility for the current mess.

George Bush was not smart enough to see through the flawed arguments of the neocon war lovers (Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfield, John Bolton, etc.) when he became president. They convinced him that his father had been wrong to leave Saddam in power, and that he could easily "fix" that by invading Iraq. They assured him that victory would be easy, and the Iraqi people would love us for bringing "democracy" to their country. I think Bush was really taken aback when those neocon assurances turned out to be false.

There were at least two major reasons for the failure in Iraq. The first was a lesson we should have learned in Vietnam -- that you can't impose a lasting regime change and democratic system on a foreign nation at the point of a gun. That must happen through the desires and actions of the people of that nation, or it will not survive.

Second, we did not install a truly inclusive democracy in Iraq. We chose sides between the religious factions in that country, and installed a shiite regime (because they supported our invasion) and excluded the sunnis (because they were part of Saddam's regime). This was a critical (and stupid) mistake -- and it assured that there would be conflict after we left that country (and no longer kept the puppet regime in power through our military presence).

Now the country's in the middle of that easily predicted religious war, and there's not much the United States can do about it. Sending in ground troops is unthinkable, and while the Obama administration is considering air strikes, I'm not even sure that is advisable. The truth is that we really no longer have a dog in this fight. If the Maliki government survives, it will be because the Iranians stepped in and gave them assistance (including ground troops) -- and if they don't survive, Iraq will be governed by sunni extremists. Neither would produce a government that could in any way be considered an ally of the United States.

The only real option for the United States is to step back and let Iraq solve its own problems -- and then begin the long process of trying to make friends with the eventual rulers of that country. It will be a long and difficult task -- but that is the bed we have made for ourselves, and we must now lay in.