Congress Should Be Running Scared Of The Electorate

If you thought the recent actions (or rather inaction) of Congress had improved their numbers, you would be dead wrong. The chart above is from a recent YouGov Poll, and it shows the numbers for Congress are still extremely low. And that's not just with some groups. Everybody is mad at Congress for the pitiful way they have accomplished nothing but to fight with each other. The public has made it clear they want Congress to compromise and get this economy moving again, but they have not gotten that (primarily because the congressional Republicans have refused to compromise on anything).

The only group to have a double-digit approval of Congress is the Republican base, and that is only 13% (certainly nothing to brag about). All other groups show single-digit approval of Congress. The public is definitely in an anti-incumbent mood, and that should scare the hell out of any representative in a competitive district.

You may think (and the Republicans probably hope) that the public is angry with both parties -- and to a certain extent that is true. They are disgusted with Washington politicians in general. But that disgust is not an equal one -- as is demonstrated in a new Washington Post / ABC News Poll (see the charts below).

Note that the Democrats actually have a 3 point positive rating in approval/disapproval, while the Republicans have a 25 point negative rating. That's has huge difference. And this feeling cuts across all demographic lines -- with nearly every group giving Democrats a higher approval rating than they give Republicans, and giving Republicans a significantly higher disapproval rating than they give Democrats. There is only one group for which that is not true -- Whites. And even Whites don't prefer Republicans over Democrats. They are split right down the middle.

I don't know if the Democrats can flip the House this year. That will depend on who goes to the polls, and in what numbers. But I think they have a great chance to seize control of the House if they can get out the vote. And looking at these latest numbers, I think the Republicans should be very worried.

The top chart is from a YouGov Poll taken between July 26th and 28th of a national random sample of 1,000 adults, and has a margin of error of 5 points.

The other charts are made with information in a new Washington Post / ABC News Poll taken between July 30th and August 3rd of a random national sample of 1,029 adults, with a 3.5 point margin of error.