These charts were made from information in the new CNN / ORC Poll done between July 22nd and 25th of a random national sample of 1,017 adults. The margin of error for only Democrats or only Republicans is 4.5 to 5 points.
This survey didn't ask party members who they supported for the nomination. Instead, they asked who hey thought would be the eventual winner of their party's nomination.
The overwhelming choice of Democrats was Hillary Clinton. About three-quarters of them (75%) say Clinton will be the party's nominee. About 9% say it will be Joe Biden, and 8% say it will be Bernie Sanders.
The picture is much muddier on the Republican side. Although 39% think Jeb Bush will be the nominee, 61% disagree -- with 18% saying it will be Donald Trump, 11% saying it will be Scott Walker, and 6% saying it will be Marco Rubio. About 26% pick another candidate or say they are unsure.
I wonder how much of this isn't just cynicism: picking the candidate who seems to have the most access to money. Personally, I think Walker is the most likely Republican candidate. But that may be cynicism too: I think the big money is actually behind him.
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