In the last few days, Donald Trump has more than once refused to say whether he would run as an Independent if he couldn't get the GOP nomination. He says it's a definite possibility if he isn't treated fairly by the Republicans.
I have no idea if he would really do that. I think right now he's just enjoying scaring the hell out of Republican leaders. And it's something that does indeed scare the Republicans. Why? Just look at the two charts above. They show what would happen if the election was now, and Trump ran as an Independent against Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton.
As you can see, the result would be disastrous for GOP hopes of winning the White House -- giving Hillary Clinton an easy path to victory.
The top chart is from a recent ABC News / Washington Post Poll -- done between July 16th and 19th of a random national sample of 1,002 adults, with a margin of error of 3.5 points.
The bottom chart is from a new Public Policy Polling survey - done on July 20th and 21st of a random national sample of 1,087 voters, with a margin of error of 3 points.
I don't like seeing in the ABC/WP poll that Bush and Trump together get 50% of the vote. But there are Democrats who support Trump, so maybe it isn't that bad.
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