The charts above are from a new Emerson College Poll -- done between April 25th and 28th of 799 registered voters in Texas (including 342 Democratic primary voters). The margin of error for registered voters is 3.4 points, and for Democrats is 5.3 points.
I was born and raised in Texas, and I've lived there most of my life. And I've seen it vote very red for nearly 30 years now (with no Democrats elected to statewide office in that time). So it seems a bit odd to be asking the question of whether the state could be in play for Democrats in 2020.
But Texas is slowly changing. In 2020, they elected more Democrats to the U.S. House of Representatives, and came very close to winning a few more. And a Democrat came very close to unseating Ted Cruz in the Senate race. If Democrats can get their vote out in Texas next year, a small miracle could happen.
The charts above show Trump is not running away with the sympathies of Texas voters. In fact, two Democratic candidates are running neck and neck with him -- Joe Biden leads Trump by 1 point (50% to 49%) and Beto O'Rourke is tied with him (50% to 50%). And some others are within possible range -- Bernie Sanders trails by 2 points, Elizabeth Warren trails by 6 points, and Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg trail by 8 points.
It won't be easy. Democrats will have to work their butts off to make it happen. But yes, I think it's possible that Texas could be in play.
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