Trump Does Have A Path To The White House

It's still early in the primary season, but it's starting to look like we already know who the two major candidates will be. 

DeSantis, Ramaswamy, and Hutchinson  have recently dropped out of the Republican race. That leaves only Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. I don't think Haley is a real threat to Trump. Even if she does well in New Hampshire, it is likely she'll lose her home state of South Carolina, and then be crushed on Super Tuesday.

Even after losing in 2020, and supporting many losing candidates in 2022, Trump still owns the Republican Party. His MAGA cult controls the party in nearly every state. They like his racism, his xenophobia, and his misogyny because it mirrors their own. They like the way he slurs Democrats and government officials. And they believe his lies.

Trump has his MAGA base convinced that he is innocent of the 91 criminal charges lodged against him, and they believe he got more votes than Biden in 2020 but had the election stolen from him. And they think most Americans agree with them, and Trump will be swept into the White House in the November election.

Joe Biden also has an easy path to being renominated. He only has two token opponents - Rep. Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson. Neither is an obstacle. Biden will be the Democratic nominee - probably by Super Tuesday (or very soon after).

That means we will be seeing a rerun of the 2020 election - Biden vs. Trump for president.

Some recent polls have had the race as a toss-up. I'm not sure that's true. The MAGA Republicans will vote for Trump and Democrats will vote for Biden, but that leaves a rather large amount of voters yet to declare who they will support (about 15% to 20%). These are mostly moderate Independents, and as usual, they are the group that will decide the election winner.

Are these Independents going to break for Trump? I doubt it. They know he was a loser in 2020, and they believe he'll be convicted of some crimes. And the improving economy will favor Biden. I think Biden wins in this scenario, especially with a large turnout. Most Americans don't want a replay of Trump's first term.

But don't start celebrating yet. Even with a large turnout, Trump does have a path to the White House. It's called "No Labels". There is a group of rich donors who don't want a Trump/Biden rematch. They are trying to create another ticket - a ticket headed by conservatives of both major parties.

This movement has no chance of actually electing a president and vice-president. But they could draw enough Independents to make the race between Biden and Trump a very close one -- and that could give Trump a path to the White House. In fact, that's probably his only chance to win.

No Labels claims to not like Trump or Biden, and have tried to portray them as equally bad. They aren't. Trump is a liar, a criminal, and an authoritarian. Biden is none of those. 

The No Labels jokers know they can't siphon off MAGA votes, but they are hoping they can siphon Independent votes away from Biden. Personally, I think the No Labels movement is a Republican false flag operation. Don't fall for it, or we could see Trump back in the White House - and his second term will be far worse than his first. He's already promised that.