I'm afraid that I just don't understand some of the political math being quoted by some in the governor's race, especially for Chris Bell. I understand that many left-wing bloggers support Chris Bell for governor. They have every right to do so, and there's no doubt that Bell would be a much better governor than the current one. But some of the figures being thrown out just don't make any sense.
Several bloggers have claimed that all Chris Bell needs to do is hold his Democratic base, and he will win. The percentage of voters that call themselves Democrats is 30-35%. If Bell got at least 30% of the vote, he might well win. The fly-in-the-ointment is the fact that, so far, Bell has shown no ability to do this. The best he has been able to do is about 20%, and that is not a winning number.
One blogger today said Bell has 25% locked up. How can he have 25% locked up when the best he has polled so far is 20%? Where are these numbers coming from - thin air?
None of us know what will happen in November. It is certainly possible that Bell could mount a charge between now and then, and win the race. It is also possible that Grandma or Kinky could do so. But it is silly to give any of the three numbers they have not yet earned.
Maybe these people think if they say it enough, it will come true. However, politics doesn't work that way. Bell, Grandma, and Kinky [my candidate] have yet to show they can push their figures up to a winnable number. If they don't stop sniping at each other, and concentrate on bringing Perry's numbers down, they will all three be losers, and so would the state of Texas.