Burnt Orange Report has the results of the new Rasmussen poll, and it looks nothing like yesterday's Zogby Poll. The numbers in both races are wildly different - so different, that it can't be accounted for by the margin of error. One, or both of these polls is wrong. It makes me wonder if anyone has a clue about what is going on in Texas politics this year. Here are the Zogby and Rasmussen polls side-by-side:
CANDIDATE.......... ZOGBY.........RASMUSSEN
Perry......................30.7%...........33%
Bell........................25.3%...........18%
Kinky.....................22.4%...........16%
Grandma...............11.1%............22%
Other.....................10.5%............11%
Hutchison.............45.2%............58%
Radnofsky.............36.8%............32%
Other.....................18.0%............10%
The margin of error for Zogby is 2.9, and the margin of error for Rasmussen is 4.5. This means while Zogby shows a real decline in Perry's numbers, the decline in Rasmussen is within the margin of error, and may not be a decrease at all. I hope it is Zogby that is closer to the truth, because that would mean we have real chances for Perry and Hutchison to be defeated. If Rasmussen is right, it will be a much harder row to hoe.
Hey, guys! I'm enjoying your blog.
ReplyDeleteI wanted to take a minute to invite you to a new group that the DNC has set up for Texas Bloggers (there's actually one in every state now) to network. I'm one of the moderators. Here's the link; hoppe to see you there!
Vince
http://www.democrats.org/page/group/TexasBloggers
The Zogby poll is highly questionable because of the fact that it has an Internet portion, which allows it to either be intentionally skewed by campaigns which send out emails asking their supporters to do so (as Radnofsky has done) or skewed by the nature of who is more likely to be on the Internet in general, which I think inflates Kinky and hurts Strayhorn
ReplyDeleteYou may be right, Jim. But the Rasmussen has a rep for leaning toward republicans. Maybe they're both wrong. We'll see in about seven weeks.
ReplyDelete