Iowa didn't contain any real surprises on caucus night, but it did have some interesting results. My candidate, Bill Richardson, didn't do too well. The polls had him at about 12% and that seems to have been pretty accurate. In many precincts he came up just short of the 15% necessary to get a delegate.
So what did his delegates do? Most of them went to Obama, who turned out to be the night's big winner. I have to admit that Obama did better than I expected. Maybe America really is ready to elect a black president. That's something I've hoped for, but never expected to see in my lifetime. Obama's victory coming in a very white state (with only a 2.5% black population) gives me hope for America's future.
Edwards can also be considered a winner last night. Without spending anywhere near the money his major opponents spent, he finished second with 30% and edged out a victory over Clinton.
Clinton has to be considered the big loser of the night. She was in first place there a month ago. She spent heavily and campaigned hard in Iowa, only to finish in third place. After this result, Clinton really needs to do well in New Hampshire.
But the biggest winner of all last night was the Democratic Party. Iowa is generally considered to be a "red" state -- after all, it voted for Bush in 2004. But last night, they doubled the turnout in the Republican caucuses, and also doubled their own turnout of four years ago. It seems that Independents and new voters turned out for the Democrats in large numbers. If this holds true in other states, it could bode very well for a huge Democratic victory in November.
Having said all that, I realize that this was just one rather small state making their statement. There is a long way to go, and anything can happen. But it was an interesting start to the primary season.
All in all, I believe that it was a victory for the American people, even if my choice didn't make #1.
ReplyDeleteGreat night for democracy, and the two people who should have lost the most (Clinton and Guiliani) did lose.
so, a breath of hope.
I agree. It was also nice to see Romney get spanked last night.
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to see what the Stormtroopers of the GOP will do if Huckabee ends up leading in the end.
ReplyDeleteI am surrounded by Bushbase types. They would rather not even participate if all they have to go with is Huckabee. Somehow, some way, the RNC will go with McCain or Romney. But they wouldn't go with someone who isnt one of them (i.e rich corporate-elitist who believes that middle America is a serfdom). And, laughingly, as I type this, Larry Kudlow (the worst demagogue on television, bar none) is talking about how Guliani is the big winner of the Iowa Caucus.. lmao.. The thing about the GOP is, they believe what they believe, and no little impertinent detail like Democracy is going to stop them...
The GOP bigwigs can scream all they want, but it looks like voters are sick of the reigning corporatocracy. That's why twice as many people showed up at Democrat caucuses.
ReplyDeleteIt's also why Huckabee won. As pitiful a candidate as he is, at least he recognizes poverty and healthcare and corporatism are real problems. Too bad he doesn't have any solutions for these problems.
It will be interesting to see what the Stormtroopers of the GOP will do if Huckabee ends up leading in the end.
ReplyDeleteFade, as a Huckabee supporter first, a conservative second, and a Republican somewhere down the line, I think the worst case scenario for the GOP is this:
1) Huckabee goes into the convention leading, but without enough delegates to win on the first ballot; and
2) The party elites broker the convention and select one of their own.
If the comparative turnout between Republicans and Democrats in Iowa is any indication, the GOP is in serious trouble come November. I think the only chance the GOP has for winning the White House is to run Huckabee, and even that's iffy at the moment. If a Republican "establishment" candidate gets the nomination, the Democrats can start measuring for curtains in the Oval Office.