Can The Dems Really Win North Carolina ?

Could it really be possible for the Democrats to carry a Southern state like North Carolina? North Carolina has voted for Republican presidential candidates for the last 30 years. It's part of the "solid South" that Republicans count on to keep them in the running. If the Republicans were to lose one or two Southern states, it would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, for them to win the presidential election.

Well, if this new poll done by Greenberg Quinlan Rossner is to be believed, the Democrats have a real shot at winning North Carolina. This poll was done August 20-26 (before Barack Obama's wonderful acceptance speech). In the poll, McCain holds a slim lead (47-44), but the Democratic candidate for the senate (Kay Hagan) is actually leading Elizabeth Dole by a full 5 points.

It seems that the people of North Carolina don't like the way things are going in this country, and they're ready for a change. Around 68% of the people there believe the country is on the wrong track, and 57% don't approve of the job George Bush is doing. Perhaps most worrisome for McCain is that 70% see him as supporting the policies of George Bush.

There are some other rather surprising numbers that favor Barack Obama. Around 55% believe he has "good judgement", and 54% reject the idea that he is not ready to lead. On who will do a better with the economy and jobs, Obama leads 52%-38%. Obama wins on energy policy 48%-36%, and on handling gas prices 43%-35%.

But most surprising of all is how the North Carolina voters see the tax issue. The Republicans have tried to paint Obama and all Democrats as being in favor of ever higher taxes. It doesn't look like that argument is working. Obama leads 46%-41% on who would better handle the issue of taxes.

These numbers show that North Carolina is not going to automatically fall into the Republican column this year. Even if Obama doesn't win the state, by giving the state some attention he could force McCain to spend time and money there that he badly needs to spend elsewhere -- and that's a good thing.

If McCain is having this much trouble holding North Carolina, that probably means Virginia is also in play (which has been trending more Democratic recently), and possibly even Georgia.

This is trouble for McCain. He needs the "solid South" to stand firm.