It's Nevada's Turn At Bat Today

(The above cartoon is by David Horsey in The Los Angeles Times.)

Today is the day that Nevada Republicans caucus to make their choice for the Republican presidential nomination. And as interesting as who will get the lion's share of Nevada's 28 delegates is wondering just how many Republicans will show up for the caucuses. There are about 400,000 registered Republicans in the state, but it is very unlikely that anywhere near that number will participate. In 2008, only about 45,000 Republicans attended the caucus (and Romney got 22,649 votes, or 51.1%). It will be interesting to see if they top that number this time.

The turnout in Iowa and new Hampshire was about the same as in 2008, while the turnout in South Carolina was larger than 2008 and the Florida turnout significantly smaller than 2008. Only enthusiastic party members tend to turn out for caucuses (which require more time and effort than taking a few minutes to vote in a primary), so the turnout can tell us something about how enthused the people are about their candidate choices (at least in Nevada).

It is harder for the polls to predict the winner of a caucus, since the ability of a candidate to turn out his supporters is more important than what the average voter thinks of the candidates. It is not uncommon for a candidate to out-perform or under-perform his poll numbers, depending on how well-organized and enthusiastic his supporters are. That makes Ron Paul the wild card in Nevada. Even though he's not polling well, his supporters are enthused and organized and he will probably out-perform his poll numbers.  I expect he will probably beat Santorum, and may even give Gingrich a good contest for the second place slot.

The chances are very good that the winner in Nevada will be Willard Mitt Romney (Wall Street Willie). he got about half the votes in 2008, and recent polls show he could do that again. Yesterday I posted the Las Vegas Review-Journal poll, which showed him with 45% support in the state (which would give him about half the state's delegates). Now the Public Policy Polling survey has been released, and it shows even better numbers for Wall Street Willie. Here are those numbers:

Mitt Romney...............50%
Newt Gingrich...............25%
Ron Paul...............15%
Rick Santorum...............8%