Time Running Out For Obamacare Haters

There's a lot of truth in the cartoon above (by Dave Granlund at davegranlund.com). The Republicans fought tooth-and-mail against making any kind of reform to the health care system -- and once it passed and became law, they increased their propaganda campaign against it. They have tried to label it as socialist (a ridiculous assertions since it depends heavily on people buying (or getting through their employer) insurance policies from private insurance companies. They have even tried to repeal or defund it.

The whole campaign against Obamacare is a little surprising, since it was originally a reform program devised and touted by Republicans (as an alternative to attempted reform in the Clinton administration). And when that Republican program was passed in Massachusetts (and signed into law by a Republican governor -- Mitt Romney), it was widely praised by Republicans as the best way to reform the health care system. The only real difference between the Republican program and Obamacare when it was first proposed was a provision in Obamacare for a public option -- and that provision was removed by blue dogs before Obamacare was passed.

So why are the Republicans displaying such a vitriolic hatred for their own reform plan? Because they know that, while it won't solve all our health care problems, it will vastly improve health care for millions of Americans once it is fully implemented -- and they don't want a Democratic (and African-American) president to get the credit for passing it. They know that when it is implemented, and people see the benefits of it firsthand, the people are going to be wondering why the Republicans didn't pass it themselves (since they had ample opportunity during the eight years of the Bush administration).

Because of their procrastination, the Republicans have put themselves in the position of having to demonize and oppose their own program -- or watch the Democrats get the credit for healthcare reform once it all becomes effective (with most parts going into effect in 2014). The Republicans have roughly another two years to get rid of Obamacare, because by 2016 most Americans will be benefitting from the program and realize the Republicans were lying to them (and it will be too late).

The Republicans had two hopes to kill Obamacare. The first one, and by far the best one, was to file suit and have it declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. That hope has now disappeared, since the court (in a 5-4 decision) ruled nearly all provisions of Obamacare to be constitutional.

That leaves them with just one option. They must win the White House and both houses of Congress in the 2012 election (and even then they would have to do away with the filibuster, or Democrats would protect Obamacare with it). If they lose the White House in 2012, President Obama will simply veto any effort to kill Obamacare (and as I said, 2016 will be too late).

They are now screaming that Obamacare imposes a new and onerous tax on the middle class, in the hopes that will be a winning issue for them. But the truth is this is just another GOP lie. The individual mandate (or "tax" as Republicans call it) will only affect at most about 5% of the population (and probably much less than that -- about 1% to 2%). And you can bet the Democrats will do their best to make that widely know to voters.

And a new Gallup Poll shows the Republicans have a tall hill to climb if they think that's the winning issue for them in the coming election. The survey (taken on June 28th, after the court decision, of a random national sample of 1,012 adults) show that while Americans are evenly split on whether they agree with the court decision (46% to 46%), most Americans don't see this as a huge campaign issue. About 71% of voters don't see Obamacare as the deciding issue in how they will vote, with 59% saying it is just one issue among many and 12% saying it is not a major issue at all.

As I said, time is running out on the Obamacare haters. 2016 will be too late, because by then millions of Americans will be enjoying the benefits of the new law (and they won't want to give those benefits up). The 2012 election is their last chance -- and its not a very good one, since their victory, if it happens, would have to be an overwhelming one.