Can Jeb Bush Win The 2016 GOP Nomination ?

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is what passes for a moderate in today's Republican Party -- and for that reason the establishment wing of the party would like to see him become the party's nominee in 2016. That wing of the party (composed mainly of Wall Street bankers and Corporate heads) still think they would benefit more from a Republican presidency, and they know that the more extreme candidates would have an almost impossible time getting elected.

But does Jeb Bush have a chance to get nominated. Can he convince enough of the party's base to vote for him to win that nomination? I have serious doubts that is possible. And I believe there are three things working against a Bush nomination. Those three things are:

1. The party was stung by the failed administration of Jeb's older brother (George Bush), and they don't want to give Democrats the advantage of campaigning against a Bush.

2. Bush has come out solidly in favor of immigration reform.

3. Bush has now come out in favor of the "common core" education standards.

Now numbers 2 and 3 might seem reasonable to most Americans, and they are. A majority of Americans know our immigration system is badly broken, and they want it reformed. And setting an adequate national standard for schools nationwide simply makes sense -- and it would help this nation to once again establish itself as a leader in education of its students.

But the Republican Party nomination is not decided by most Americans. It is decided by the base voters of the Republican Party -- a base that has moved far to the right in recent years. About 54% of the party's base nationally in made up of teabaggers and evangelicals -- two groups that vote in lock-step. And in the South, and many Western and Midwestern states, the percentage of the party's base made up of those two groups is much higher  -- high enough to give them complete control of the party in those states.

And immigration reform and "common core" standards are two issues vociferously opposed by the teabaggers/evangelicals. Even if those voters could forgive Jeb Bush for being George's brother, they could never accept his stand on those two issues. The teabaggers/evangelicals are not going to vote for a moderate right-winger (like Bush, or even Christie). And that means an extremist candidate (Cruz, Paul, Huckabee, etc.) has a much better chance to be nominated.

Bush would probably be more palatable to most Americans (although I still think Hillary would beat him), and it is just that palatability that makes him unelectable in Republican primaries. The Republican Party is currently an extremist party -- and right now they have no desire to change.

(The caricature of Jeb Bush above is by DonkeyHotey.)