Bernie Sanders has managed to take the lead in New Hampshire. According to the latest poll of that state, he now leads Hillary Clinton by 7 points. This marks the first time Sanders has been the leader in any state, and should boost his supporters somewhat. It's not a huge surprise though. New Hampshire borders his home state of Vermont, and if Sanders can't do well there, then he can't do well anywhere.
But outside of his home territory, Sanders still is having trouble competing with Hillary Clinton. Yesterday, I showed you the latest poll from Iowa, which had Clinton more than doubling Sanders support. Now we get the results from Missouri, and that same thing is true there. Clinton has 53% and Sanders has 25% -- a lead of 28 points. Clinton once again more than doubles Sanders in support.
The New Hampshire numbers are from a new Boston Herald / Franklin Pierce University Poll -- done between August 7th and 10th of a random sample of 442 likely Democratic primary voters, and has a margin of error of 4.7 points.
The Missouri numbers are from a new Public Policy Polling survey -- done between August 7th and 9th of a random sample of 352 Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of 5.2 points.
As always, I'm a Sanders supporter. But I don't think any of this means much. I'm very interested in what kind of an organization he has. I know that Clinton has a great organization, and in the end, that's going to be huge. Overall, I'm very pleased with how Sanders is running his campaign. But thus far it has all been about messaging. That's different than getting people out to the polls. We'll see. There's a long way to go. And as always, I look forward to the debates. And I hope everything makes the party stronger. Thus far, I think the #BlackLivesMatter thing has been great for O'Malley, Sanders, and Clinton -- and thus the party.
ReplyDeleteYou're right -- the Sanders campaign seems more about the message than the organization. I'm wondering if that's going to be the extent of his campaign, or whether he will soon make a serious effort to organize. He's from a small state, where organization is not so critical. Does he understand that in larger states, organization is a critical element of a campaign?
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