In the last couple of presidential elections, the Republican nominee has done very poorly among Hispanic voters. Republican leaders know this, and they also know that the Hispanic portion of the American population is the fastest growing portion of the population (and the majority of them are American born, and thus are citizens who will be able to vote). It is just a fact that with each election in the future, the percentage of Hispanic voters will grow while the percentage of White voters will shrink (by about 2% to 4% each presidential election).
The GOP leadership hoped to reach out to Hispanic voters in this election. They haven't changed any of their policies, but they hoped their candidates would at least temper their rhetoric (and put immigration on the back burner until after the election). But Donald Trump has taken those hopes and tossed them into the trash. He has made demonizing Hispanic immigrants a centerpiece of his campaign, and his huge lead among the presidential candidates has reminded Hispanic voters of just how bad the GOP policies are toward them.
The chart above shows just how bad the Republican brand is among Hispanics. It is from a new Gallup Poll -- done between July 8th and August 23rd of a random national sample of 2,183 Hispanic adults, with a margin of error of 5 points.
The chart shows the net favorability of each candidate (Favorable views minus unfavorable views). Note that only one candidate, Jeb Bush (who speaks Spanish and has a Hispanic wife), has a favorability of double-digits among Hispanics -- and it is a poor 11%. Marco Rubio, who is of Cuban heritage, finishes second with a 5% net favorability. No other candidate tops 3%, and 10 of the 17 GOP candidates finish with a negative net favorability. Not surprising, Donald Trump finishes dead last with a -51% net favorability.
Those are some atrocious numbers for all the GOP candidates. It's still a long time before the election is held (about 15 months), and nothing is written in stone -- but the Republicans have a lot of work to do if they expect to get a significant amount of Hispanic votes.
The chart below shows the net favorability of the Democratic candidates among Hispanics. Hillary Clinton does very well, getting a 40% net favorability rating. But her opponents are doing as poorly as the Republican candidates (Sanders 5%, Webb 2%, Chafee 0%, and O'Malley -2%).
Ever since the 2012 election, I've argued against the idea that the Republicans could just change their rhetoric. Sure, it helps on the margins. But the truth is that even when the GOP was working on immigration reform, their attitude was, "We're doing this one thing for you and then we don't want to hear anything more!" They are just a horrible party. Did you see this quote I posted, Ann Coulter Doesn’t Have a Clue About America?
ReplyDeleteAlso: why is O'Malley under water?
If Bush gets the nomination, I'm not sure how much he's going to sffer from Trump's rhetoric, especially since he spoke out against it early.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately for Bush, though, he's a terribly bland candidate.