Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Can Clinton Hold The "Obama Coalition" Together In 2016 ?

The two maps above show the electoral vote distribution in the 2012 and 2008 presidential elections. The maps are from Sabato's Crystal Ball -- where Larry Sabato and  Tim Robinson show the electoral maps for all American presidential elections from 1824 through 2012. All of the maps are interesting, and if you are a history or politics buff, the page will be well worth your time.

I show the 2012 and 2008 electoral results, because they show the "coalition" put together by President Obama to win the White House -- with 365 electoral votes in 2008 and 332 electoral votes in 2012. The amount of votes needed to win is 270. That means the Democratic candidate can't afford to lose more than 62 electoral votes from the states won by Obama.

Can Hillary Clinton (who I presume will be the Democratic nominee) hold most or all of these "blue" states? The answer, of course, is anyone's guess right now. It will depend on who the GOP nominee turns out to be, and how well the two nominees are able to campaign for the general election.

However, I think Clinton has a very good chance of holding at least 270 of those blue state votes. And if the GOP nominee is one of the two current leaders, Donald Trump or Ted Cruz, she could even add to the states that President Obama was able to win (in 2008 or 2012). Maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part, but I just can't see most Americans wanting either Cruz or Trump to be their president.

We're only about a month away from the start of the primary season, and 6 to 7 months away from the general election campaign. The fun (for us political junkies) is about to start -- and it should be a very interesting few months.

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