Friday, December 04, 2015

New Hampshire Presidential Preference Is Still Not Clear

A new poll has been released regarding the presidential preference of New Hampshire voters. It is the Public Policy Polling survey -- done between November 30th and December 2nd of a random sample of 458 Democratic primary voters and 454 Republican primary voters. The margin of error for both parties is 4.6 points.

The survey shows Hillary Clinton with a 2 point lead among Democratic primary voters, but that is well within the margin of error -- so the best that can be said is that Clinton and Bernie Sanders are virtually tied in New Hampshire, and either could become the "winner" of that state's primary. If the race was limited to registered Democrats, then Clinton would have a 9 point advantage. But they allow independents to vote in the primary, and Sanders has a 9 point edge among them. There is a real chance that the two will split the state's 32 delegates (making neither the winner).

Donald Trump is still leading all others among New Hampshire Republican Primary voters with 27%. But that is not enough to win a majority of the state's 23 Republican delegates. If the election was held right now, he would have to share those delegates with Cruz (13%), Rubio (11%), and Christie (10%). No other candidates currently meet the 10% threshold to receive delegates.

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