Saturday, December 12, 2015

Public Still Thinks Trump Likely To Win GOP Nomination

Other polls have shown that Donald Trump's proposal to ban all muslims from entering the United States has not hurt him among Republicans. In fact, a majority of Republicans like his hateful plan to ban muslims. And a new Rasmussen Poll, taken after his proposal was announced, shows that 70% of likely Republican voters think he will win the nomination.

But what does the general public think. They agree, but not by as large a margin, that Donald Trump is likely to win the Republican nomination. That is what 55% of the public thinks. Only 38% think he is not likely to be the GOP nominee.

That Rasmussen Poll was done on December 8th and 9th of a random national sample of 1,000 likely voters, and has a margin of error of 3 points.

The chart below is from the recent AP / GfK Poll -- done between December 3rd and 7th of a random national sample of 1,007 adults, with a margin of error of 3.4 points.

For the first time, a candidate other than Hillary Clinton is considered to have a chance to win the general election. It's Donald Trump -- and 55% of the public now thinks he could win (while 40% say he couldn't). That's still far behind Clinton though. About 78% of the general public says she could win the general election, while only 17% say she couldn't.

All other candidates have a larger percentage saying they couldn't win the general election than believe they could win -- although the numbers for Marco Rubio are close (with 45% saying he could win and 49% saying he could not win).

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