Thursday, January 07, 2016

California Voters Make Their Presidential Preferences Known

The California primary is not until June 7th, a some say the primary races will be decided by then. But that may not be true, especially in the Republican race. While Donald Trump is leading the field right now, he has yet to demonstrate he can get a majority of the Republican delegates (and neither has any other Republican).

Right now, Ted Cruz has a small lead in California of 2 points over Donald Trump -- but that is well within the survey's margin of error (meaning the two are in a virtual tie in California). That could easily change by June, since the GOP race has been very volatile in California (like in other states). Cruz, Trump, and Rubio have made significant gains since October, while Carson, Bush, and Fiorina have lost a significant amount of support.

The Democratic race has been pretty stable though, with January numbers mirroring the October numbers. Clinton holds an 11 point lead overall over Sanders. Clinton has a significant lead among Democrats, women, non-whites, those over 40, and moderates. Sanders has a significant lead among those under 40. Whites and liberals are split between the two candidates.

These charts were made from information in a new Field Poll -- done between December 16th and January 3rd of a random California sample of 329 Democrats and 325 Republicans likely to vote in the primary. The margin of error for both is 5.6 points.

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