Saturday, January 30, 2016

Hillary Clinton Has A Huge Lead Among Texas Democrats

Bernie Sanders is close in Iowa, and may actually win New Hampshire. But those states are not representative of how the race is going nationally. And by mid-March, his prospects of beating Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination will look a lot poorer.

Take Texas for example. We're only about a month away from the day Texas voters will choose their delegates. Texans will vote on March 1st, as one of the Super-Tuesday states -- and the race is not close in Texas. Hillary Clinton currently has 50% support among Texas Democrats -- 34 points better than Bernie Sanders. Even if Sanders were to get 100% of the undecided voters (an impossibility), he still could not win Texas. And I suspect most (if not all) of the Super-Tuesday states have similar numbers.

For Texas Republicans, it looks like it is boiling down to a two-person race. Ted Cruz (who is a Texan) leads Donald Trump by 5 points (30.3% to 25.3%). Jeb Bush, who has many Texas ties, does very poorly in the state -- getting only about 8.2% support.

These charts were made from a new KTVT-CBS / Dixie Strategies Poll -- done on January 25th and 26th of 767 likely Texas Democratic voters and 1,001 likely Texas Republican voters. The margin of error for Democrats is 3.54 points, and for Republicans is 3.1 points.

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