Sunday, February 28, 2016

Hispanics Show Strong Support For Democrats (And Clinton)

These charts were made from information in a recent Washington Post / Univision Poll -- done between February 11th and 18th of a random national sample of 1,200 Hispanic voters, with a 3 point margin of error.

As the top chart shows, about 51% of Hispanics are definitely planning to vote for Democrats in November, while only 14% are planning to definitely vote for Republicans. The sad part for the Republicans is that there are 32% of Hispanics saying they are unsure, because by nominating an extremist candidate (which is all of the candidates in their primary), they are throwing away the opportunity to get a significant portion of the Hispanic vote. With Hispanics expected to be a larger percentage of voters this year, that could turn out to be a big mistake (especially in the presidential race).

The issues chart above shows why this is true. Hispanics simply prefer the stand of Democrats on the issues over the stand of Republicans.

So, who will the Hispanics vote for in the primaries? Those voting in the Democratic primary (the majority) prefer Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders by a 29 point margin (57% to 28%). For the few Hispanic Republicans, Rubio outdistances Trump by 12 points, and Cruz by 13 points.

But while Hispanics prefer Clinton to Sanders, the bottom chart shows that either of the Democratic candidates would do very well with Hispanics if they got the nomination -- easily beating any of the possible GOP nominees. Rubio does the best -- losing to Clinton by only 30 points, and to Sanders by 24 points. Trump does the worst -- losing to Clinton by 57 points, and to Sanders by 56 points.

Trump has said that Hispanics love him. This poll shows that is simply not true.

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